European Union

These Are The Five Key Takeaways from the European Elections

The European elections are the largest democratic exercise on the European continent. Last Sunday, some 400 million people were eligible to vote, across twenty-eight Member States, and their votes matter. With the elections done and dusted, we will now have to wait for the new Parliament to settle in, and for a change of leadership in all key EU institutions. It’s a good time to ask ourselves – what did we learn? How has Europe changed over the past five years? Here are five key takeaways from the European elections, which are bound to shape the political landscape for the next five years.

1 – The Far Right Is Not Surging, But It’s Here To Stay

In the lead up to the elections, many commentators predicted a surge for the far right, in no small part due to the media’s morbid obsession with the far right itself – a trait which extremist leaders know to exploit. The creation of a new far right group in the European Parliament, called EAPN (European Alliance of People and Nations) fed fears that the far right could mount a serious challenge to the EU institutions. The three main parties behind the new group were Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland, France’s Rassemblement National, and Italy’s North League. Their leaders made bold promises on the eve of the elections, with Salvini in particular predicting that EAPN would become the third, perhaps even the second largest group in the European Parliament.

European Elections
Salvini (Lega Nord), Vilimsky (FPÖ), Le Pen (FN), Wilders (PVV), Annemans (VB). Credits to Laurens Cerulus & Euractiv.

It was not to be. As we predicted before the elections, this supposed far right surge failed to materialise. If Salvini was hoping for his group to be in the top three in the Parliament, Sunday night must have proven a bitter disappointment: EAPN is only the fifth largest group in the Parliament. The faction, of course, does benefit from the death of EFDD, which concentrates more far right parties in a singular group, rather than dividing them. Of the three main parties in the group, however, only the North League made serious gains compared to recent electoral bouts, and even they underperformed compared to what pollsters were expecting. In France, the Rassemblement National garnered fewer votes than they did in 2014. Once Britain leaves the European Union, moreover, the far right in Parliament will be further weakened. It is still possible for EAPN to make gains with post-electoral alliances, quite possibly with the Hungarian ruling party Fidesz, but given the group’s disappointing performance on Sunday, the willingness on the part of other far right leaders to subordinate themselves to Matteo Salvini is not guaranteed.

At the same time, however, this shouldn’t lead us to hastily predicting the demise of the far right. If anything, indications are that it’s here to stay – and that it plans to become institutionalised over time. Previously loud demands to leave the Euro or even the Union itself have quietly been dropped, and with Britain gasping for air as Brexit protracts longer than expected, voters have lost their appetites for risky experiments. Moreover, even the far right has had to contend with the increased Europeanisation of the campaign: higher turnout, high approval ratings for the EU, and attention shifting away from national politics and more towards European politics, have forced the far right to reposition itself as a European equivalent of the Republican Party in the United States: rural-minded, defender of States’ rights against the centre, hardliner against immigration, etc. It’s likely to last in that role for a long time.

2 – Liberals and Greens Have A Bright Future

The ALDE group (Alliance of Liberals and Democrats in Europe) was by far the faction that made the largest gains compared to 2014, gaining a total of 48 seats. As traditional centre-right and centre-left parties bleed support, liberals all over Europe reap the benefits more than any other. In the measure that any faction has gained the role of kingmaker in the European Parliament, it is certainly them, and their success reflects an underlying shift in European political culture, with social liberalism increasingly seen by many as the progressive way forward. They also gain from the high approval rating of the EU, which translates into support for outspoken pro European parties.

European Elections
A projection of gains and losses in the coming European Parliament, authored by Europe Elects.

The Greens are also on a steady upswing, and have been since 2017, although mainstream media have overlooked this on multiple occasions. As climate change becomes a pressing issue in the minds of European voters, and support for traditional centre-left parties fades, a green wave has swept over Europe. Almost everywhere, from France to Finland, the Greens have outperformed even the most generous predictions of pollsters, with the German Greens in the lead. Compared to the Liberals, the Greens are undoubtedly closer to social democratic ideas of yore, which helps the two differentiate, but an increasingly large faction within the movement sympathises with social liberalism, making it easier for the Greens to work with other parties. All in all, it looks like only a matter of time before a Green head of State or government sits in the European Council.

3 – Traditional Parties Will Survive, But Will No Longer Rule The Roost

The European People’s Party (centre-right) and the Socialists and Democrats (centre-left) have had difficult European elections, bleeding more than one hundred seats combined. The two factions, which have defined politics in the European Parliament virtually since its inception, will not be able to form a majority between them for the first time in history. At the same time, however, expectations of their imminent demise were misplaced. Both the conservatives and the social democrats still have something to say and an electorate that feels invested in them, especially among seniors. In the future, these parties should get used to fractured political landscapes in which they won’t be able to call the shots, but in which they will still be needed.

4 – The Radical Left Is In Trouble

While traditional parties close to the centre have completed a successful holding action, if at great cost in terms of seats, the days of the radical left as an influential force in Parliament seem to be numbered. Taken collectively, the parties affiliated with the GUE/NGL faction have never scored lower than they have in 2019. Their decline in Spain, France, Greece, and Denmark – all traditional strongholds – has relegated them to a mere thirty-eight seats, according to the latest projections. It is unclear what the future may hold for traditional far left parties, but their deep state of crisis is undeniable.

European Elections
The European Parliament building in Strasbourg

5 – Support for the EU is Record High, Support for More Integration is not

The European Union’s approval ratings have hit new records just before the elections, a figure confirmed by the public’s expressed increased interest in the elections themselves. This translated into a sharp increase in electoral turnout on election day – the first time this happens in the history of European elections. When polled, Europeans also increasingly converge on the responsibilities they would like the EU to devote its attention to: climate change, security against external threats, fighting terrorism, solving youth unemployment, and handling immigration.

This represents a shift away from traditional items of integration, and it’s apparently in contradiction with the consolidation of Eurosceptic, or Eurocritical far right and right wing parties. What it signals, however, is that Europeans appreciate the EU and its contributions – but would like formal integration to slow down or stop for the time being, reorienting the Union towards the threats that loom ever larger in voters’ minds. In that respect, therefore, the knee-jerk reaction to the fast pace of European integration over the past three decades does not also mean a rejection of the EU itself.

With the European elections behind us, the European Council will now move on to debate the nominations to the top jobs in the European institutions. As we follow the rumours and speculations surrounding this process, however, we can be sure that these five key takeaways will play a role in European politics for years to come.

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Tullio Pontecorvo

Student of political science and international relations, co-founder of My Country? Europe. Aspiring sci-fi author. Believes shooting aliens in the face to be the ultimate form of gaming.

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