The island of Cyprus, the third largest and third most populous island in the Mediterranean, has been de facto split into two separate entities since 1974, when Turkey invaded Cyprus. On the south-western side, the Republic of Cyprus. The country joined the European Union in 2004 and the Eurozone in 2008. On the north-eastern side, the unrecognised Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. Since the first fracture in the Seventies, Turkish and Greek Cypriots have lived separated from each other. The more time passes, the less likely a reunification becomes. But are there alternatives to reunification?
UK’s historical involvement
After the Russo-Turkish war, the Ottoman Empire agreed to let the British Empire set an outpost in the Mediterranean by leasing them the island of Cyprus. The island was of key importance for the UK, which needed the location to monitor the Suez Canal and all the colonial routes going through. Once the Ottoman Empire joined the Central Powers in WW1, the UK formally annexed Cyprus, as well as many other Ottoman territories such as Egypt.
The UK officially made Cyprus a British crown colony in 1925, after the Turkish Republic had given up on Cyprus with the Treaty of Lausanne. However, the Greek population of the island believed that the British rule would lead them to Enosis, the reunification with Greece, as part of a “Greater Greece” (Megali Idea) plan. As the UK did not seem to move towards this, a guerrilla organisation was born in 1955: the National Organisation of Cypriot Fighters (EOKA), which had Enosis as its goal. Turkish nationals wanted at first a full annexation by Turkey, but then preferred a partition after realising that Turkish Cypriots made up only 20% of the total population. As a response to EOKA, the Turkish Resistance Organisation (TMT) appeared and aimed for Taksim, the partition of the island.
Independence, the Greek coup, and the Turkish invasion
After many riots provoked by EOKA and supported by the majority of the population, Cyprus got its independence in 1960. The first president elected is Makarios III, an archbishop that aimed for Enosis. By trying to keep the Turkish out of government and out of decision loops, violence only escalated. The UN had to intervene with UN peacekeepers and impose a cease-fire in 1964 to maintain peace.
In July 1974, the Greek Military Junta orchestrated a successful coup in Cyprus. The new government formed, a junta led by Nikos Sampson, was aiming at reuniting Cyprus with Greece. In response, Turkey tried to gather international support for an invasion through the UN but failed. Under the Guarantee Treaty of 1960 signed by Turkey, Greece, and the United Kingdom, each one of these signatories could orchestrate a unilateral military invasion of Cyprus to restore democracy. The situation remained frozen since then.
Reunification and the Annan plan
After such an escalation of violence, how can a nation ever reunite? Both regions would need devolution of powers, as neither side would accept the other having more power. The most sustainable solution appears to be the federal model. It would allow more flexibility and less state centralisation, taking more into account the needs of local communities. Such a plan has been already thought by the United Nations: the Annan plan. It suggested a restructuration and reunification of the Republic of Cyprus into a “United Republic of Cyprus” that would be a federation of two states, more or less based on the Swiss model.
A reconciliation committee was proposed along with the federation plan, with the aim to bring the two communities back together. It also allowed Greece and Turkey to keep permanent military bases on the island, with a strong limit on the military size.
Different versions of the plan were made, up to the Annan plan V. The resolution was put to a referendum in 2004 in both communities. Northern Cypriots voted in favour of the reunification plan with almost 65% in favour, while Greek Cypriots voted the referendum down with a vast 75% against. On exit polls, most Greek Cypriots were concerned about security, which was the main reason for the rejection.
Towards a two-state solution?
In response to the Greek Cypriot’s rejection of the referendum, the UN called for a lift on unnecessary trade barriers and restrictions. Their hope is, if a reunification federation plan is not accepted, that the two entities can at least cooperate on basic inter-state matters. This means implementing a de-facto two-state solution until the Republic of Cyprus eventually officially recognises Northern Cyprus.
The conflict evolved from aggressiveness, threats or even annihilatory conflict at times, to disagreements, or questioning. As shown in the behaviour graph below, the general trend over the years shows that the conflict is slowly settling. Many elected Cypriots, both Turkish and Greek, concede that both populations grew apart by several generations, acknowledging that they share little except the name.
The only way left to move forward is thus a two-state solution. It would allow Northern Cyprus to vary its trade and avoid being dependent on Turkey. Normalisation would also mean further diplomatic relations between the two parts of the island and to aim eventual agreements at common growth. It will also resolve a century-long dispute for Cyprus and could ease tensions between the European Union and Turkey.
But Turkey does not seem willing to ease these tensions. Many aspects show that the country will not finalise its accession process to the EU, and President Erdoğan understood it. The Cyprus question is a point of pressure they have on the Union, a powerful lever just like the migrants and their diaspora. A United Cyprus would mean giving away their military control over the North of the island, being even more contained in the Mediterranean Sea, which has been the source of many tensions in 2020.
The need to reunify is also less present in the Northern part. They used to be much poorer than Cyprus which was a pro-unity argument for long. They are however rapidly closing the gap, showing that they do not need the unification to develop properly. Cyprus’ nominal GDP per capita is estimated at $26,240, while Northern Cyprus’ is almost equal to $15,000. It might be almost two times lower, but it is almost equal to Poland’s and Hungary’s nominal GDP per capita. It also is higher than the ones of Croatia, Romania and Bulgaria.
While not ideal, it clearly shows that this part of the island can develop on its own. And with the recent discovery of increasingly more natural gas in Northern Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone, the space for development increases with it.
With Turkey having little incentives to let go of its influence over the island and Northern Cyprus developing well, the pressure other than political will to reunite the two parts will remain low for a very long time. The situation is certainly not pushing for a United Cyprus. Citizens of both areas report more and more their doubts about a possible reunification and become more and more used to the situation. This is normalisation in process.
Finally, this conflict is a “comfortable” conflict for Cyprus, as it gives its leaders great political leverage. Not only it fosters patriotism within its population, but it also allows Cyprus to have a real say in the European Council by threatening to veto unless Cyprus receives concessions whenever they may use it.
Whatever the future negotiations will lead to, the European Union is pushing for a normalisation of the situation as part of its long-term plan of Development and Cooperation. Whether it is under the form of a United Republic of Cyprus, or as the recognition and trade agreements with Northern Cyprus (and eventually welcome them as Member State in the future), the best thing that can happen is the end of this century-long conflict.
