It was November 2002 when the new millennium got stunned by corona. The disease quickly spread fear across the world and killed hundreds. Luckily it went away almost as quickly as it had appeared. The world sighed in relief. Funding and interest in corona related research ebbed and governments and people continued as before.
When the novel coronavirus appeared, it must have come as quite the shock when, suddenly, the death toll had already risen into the thousands. Whether this was because of the increase in the number of people of advanced age, or the increase of the number of multimorbid individuals or if the virus itself was more potent is still sort of a mystery. Perhaps, it was all the above. What we did notice was that this virus, this one was a killer. It penetrated our societies and struck at the weakest individuals, taking loved ones left and right. It left scars filled with sadness and anger that had no real direction, so people ended up lashing out at anyone they could possibly blame.
Some lashed out at China for hiding the outbreak. Some lashed out at the WHO that had initially underestimated the potential of the disease based on faulty Chinese information. Others lashed out at the EU for lack of action and others still at their own national governments. Some people even went as far as lashing out at people of Asian descent that had little to nothing to do with the coronavirus outbreak, just to get their anger out. It was a mess.
![Italian army trucks are loaded with coffins in the midst of the corona emergency in Ferrara, Italy. [Sergio Pesci/EPA/EFE]](https://mycountryeurope.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/Italian-army-trucks-are-loaded-with-coffins-to-be-transported-to-crematorium-during-the-Coronavirus.jpg)
Seasonal threat
Recent reports from Africa have suggested that as the sub-Sahara is entering its winter period the virus is making its way there as well. What this has caused researchers to suspect is that the disease might be seasonal. Some people celebrated this news thinking that our ordeal would soon be over, but researchers urged caution. If the virus is seasonal that meant that it would come again. It would kill again. Unlike its predecessor, COVID-19 is showing no signs of just leaving us alone, it has plans and those plans involve staying.
What worries me personally, is the apparent short memory of humanity. When one crisis is averted, we soon forget it. Even when we do prepare for the next one, when the moment comes, we still debate about whether we should deploy our preparations, as was seen with the European Stability Mechanism deployment. I fear that if this novel coronavirus does take a hiatus for the summer, we will once again be lulled to inaction by the sudden peace. Instead, we should be using our breather to try and finish our defences before we get hit again.
A light at the end of the tunnel – with a few bumps on the way
Now, there are multiple drugs that could potentially treat the disease, and vaccines are also in the pipeline. Through our experiences with the H1N1 vaccine, it seems likely that researchers and companies will, out of fear of litigation, not be rolling these out without large scale testing. This means that the earliest vaccines might be anything from 6 months to multiple years away.
Some French hospitals and South Korea have already decided to take the anti-malarial drug hydroxychloroquine into use. However, the hype for the substance brought on by the US President Donald Trump’s endorsement of it has caused many people to try and buy it in bulk and price gougers are likely to try to get their share as well.
It will never be quite the same
The virus is likely to stay with us for years to come, and maybe one day become a normal part of our lives that we vaccinate against and have regular drugs for. For now, though, it is a disease that has crashed the global economy, created a renewed rift between Southern and Northern Europe, brought the Chinese Dragon down from the sky, and revealed glaring problems in the US healthcare system.
The fact that the disease targets the elderly will likely cause a significant shift in the demographics of many countries like Italy, where the average age of those dying is around 81. In a quite horrifying twist of fate, it might even lead to a strengthened economy in some countries, as horrible as that is to say, at a massive cost of life. The scars and anger that people will have after this will most likely shape the global political landscape for years to come.
It is just my hope that the way the world changes is to take the threat of disease more seriously and understand the importance of cooperation and transparency. We would no longer consider diseases as something that go away and never need to be thought about again. A shift from short-term planning to long-term planning.
