As usual, there is absolutely no reason to take the populist narrative of themselves at face value. Moreover, their attempt to present themselves as common sense parties for the common man are highly dishonest. Anti system parties are not new in the West, and while they can often implement “catch all” strategies, they are always traceable to the political spectrum if one looks closely enough.

Northern And Southern Populism?

Philip Manow, a German political scientist, has developed a theory about populism, dividing it into two distinct geographical expressions, one for Northern Europe and one for Southern Europe. The difference, according to him, is that Northern populism is a form of nationalism, whereas Southern populism is primarily an anti-globalisation movement. Examples cited range from Spain, in which the left wing of the political spectrum is in great health, to Greece with its governing “coalition of the radical left”. In countries like Germany, Sweden etc, the populist wave would instead be markedly against immigration.

This model has many flaws. Recent political developments in Spain have shown the emergence of a far right movement much in the nationalist style supposedly unique to Northern Europe. Italy bucks the trend, too, with far right party North League currently first in opinion polls with a huge lead. Moreover, northern populists themselves don’t pull punches in their critique of globalisation.

Even more importantly, Manow falls into the most common mistake of taking populists at face value. It’s true that there are many similarities between so-called populist platforms, not just in Europe, but in the West in general: opposition to political correctness, hostility to civil rights, economic nationalism, foreign policies based on antagonism rather than cooperation etc. These similarities, however, don’t point to a single populist political platform, not even one split along geographical lines: they are simply a rejection of liberalism and social democracy. There is no news in this, and one wonders why the phenomenon has baffled people so much, when there is no mystery at all. The far right and the far left have both rejected liberalism for as long as they have been around. Their critiques might at times overlap, but they did the same in the 1930s and the 1940s.

In fact, it’s precisely the rediscovery of these terms – far left and far right – that best explains the character of these populist parties, including both their similarities and their differences. Let’s look at a real world example in which both extremes played an influential role; the French presidential elections of 2017.

The Far Right And The Far Left In France’s Presidential Elections

Of the top four parties, two made the headlines for their radical and “populist” platforms. The first is the famous far right party led by Marine le Pen, back then still called Front National (literally national front). This party is not new – it was founded in 1972, and has been a regular fixture in elections since then. In the first round of the 2017 presidential elections, it gained 21,30% of the votes.

The party, which has recently been renamed Rassemblement National, has moved away from traditional French far right positions and embraced the growing internationalisation of far right ideologies. Earlier in 2019, it has also quietly dropped its demands to quit the European Union and the Euro. Nevertheless, the key tenets of its campaign remain: French nationalism, opposition to immigration and globalism, and virulent Euroscepticism.

The other populist party is the far left list represented by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and called La France Insoumise (literally the non-oppressed France). This party gained 19,58%, materially translating into some 600.000 fewer voters than the Front National. Both parties have been branded as “populist”. Both tried to appeal to rural and blue collar voters with a campaign run against the establishment, the European Union, transatlantic ties, and just about any spook imaginable. And yet, the parties remain distinct in identity, representing the far left and the far right in France.

La France Insoumise isn’t the communist party of France, nor is it an old name in French politics. It was founded on the 23rd April of 2017, from the fusion of the ‘Parti de Gauche’ (Party of the Left) and a coalition of parties called the ‘Front the Gauche’ (Left Front). They ran as one party for the 2017 presidential elections, running on an anti-capitalist and Eurosceptic agenda.

As is common in the West, the French Presidential elections were affected by high rates of abstention, coming at around 22,23% and 25,6% for the first respectively second turn.

If we count at the abstentionism, we obtain that 16,57% from a total population of nearly sixty-five million voted for Marine Le Pen in the first round. By the same calculation, La France Insoumise scored 15,23%. The two extreme parties, taken together, do so reach 31,80% of the total amount of eligible voters in the first round of the election. A third of the French population voted for either the far left or the far right. But is this section of the population truly homogenous?

The Old Divisions Haven’t Gone Away

Traditional parties are struggling everywhere in Europe, but in France, their decline has been ruinous. With the country’s high unemployment rate and social tensions, both traditional parties that have for so long defined French political history scored catastrophically low. The French ‘Parti Social’ (Social Party), which produced Macron’s predecessor as president, François Hollande, barely reached the 6% mark. Its decline was confirmed in the recent European elections. Their traditional adversary, Les Républicains (The Republicans) saved face with 20% of votes in 2017, although their downward spiral continued – they were overtaken by the Greens in the 2019 European elections, for a start.

However, just because the two traditional main parties are ailing, that doesn’t mean there is anything especially new on the table, much less something that deserves the brand-new name of populism. Far left and far right ideas have been part and parcel of French democracy for more than a century, and while there is some overlap in the voter segments targeted by Le Pen and Melenchon, there are also key distinctions. Let’s look at this demographic map of France.

Now, let’s compare it with a map of voting preferences at a regional and local level for the 2017 presidential elections. There is a clear overlap between economic difficulties and a preference for promises of deliverance over continuity with the past. That should not be surprising. What is more interesting, however, is that the Front National and La France Insoumise do not overlap geographically.

We can clearly see that the Front National got the most votes in the east and north of the country, areas that traditionally lived off heavy industry and mining. These areas have been negatively affected by de-industrialisation. Interestingly, however, voting support for La France Insoumise does not map on the same areas, collecting its support primarily in rural and agricultural areas to the south and west of France, as well as in a few arrondissements in Paris.

This data should caution us not to jump to conclusions. There is some truth in the notion that so-called populist parties run campaigns centered on anger, frustration, and rejection of the establishment. But that has been true of all anti-system parties and movements in the history of European democracy, and does not automatically signal the emergence of a coherent “populist” opposition to the elites. Not only do these parties have different identities and platforms, they also have distinct voting bases. The attempt at making these parties appear de-politicised and honest representatives of the common man are a communication ploy. Nor can the division in current politics today simply be described as one of globalists versus anti-globalists.

The social tensions and economic problems at the root of the changes in French politics need to be addressed. If Emmanuel Macron can’t, the likelihood that Le Pen will be asked to is high. Nevertheless, the divide between the right and left is not dead, not even on the extremes: it remains alive, both in ideology and in geographical and demographic distribution. These parties have a common enemy – liberal democracy – but not a common agenda. It’s time to drop the confusing moniker of “populism” and return to the names that successfully described radicals for a long time: far left and far right extremists.

Guest article by Felix Wagner. This content does not necessarily reflect the official opinion of My Country? Europe. Responsibility for the information and views expressed therein lies entirely with the author.

The post French Populism Is Neither Left Nor Right – Here’s Why appeared first on My Country? Europe..

The centre-right EPP emerged once more as the largest country, ahead of the centre-left EPP. For the first time in the history of European elections, however, the two parties combined won’t be able to form a majority. The elections also saw the consolidation of the far right, and a surge for liberals and greens. In this article, you will find a rundown of the results country by country. For the Union-wide results, please head over here, whereas for an analysis of the overall vote, we have you covered. Here are the election results – country by country.

Austria (18 seats)

Turnout: 60% (+5% from 2014)
System: single-constituency proportional, 4% threshold

Chancellor Kurz’s centre-right ÖVP party (EPP) was confirmed as the largest party, netting 34% of the vote. This was not enough to save Kurz from the vote of no confidence that toppled his government last week, but it does provide the EPP with a good result. Centre-left SPÖ (S&D) comes second, with 23%, ahead of the far-right FPÖ (EAPN) at 17%. The latter is still reeling from recent scandals. The Greens and liberal party Neos are the smaller Austrian parties to make it into Parliament, with 14% and 8% respectively.

The EPP is the net winner in Austria, getting seven out of the country’s nineteen EP seats. S&D follows with five seats, EAPN nets three, and the Greens get two. Finally, ALDE snatches one seat in Austria. After Brexit, Austria’s 19th seat will go to EPP.

Belgium (21 seats)

Turnout: 88% (-1%)
System: proportional in three constituencies: 12 Flemish, 8 French, and 1 German-speaking seats.

Belgians turned out to vote en masse since voting is mandatory and the poll coincided with general and local elections in the country. The vote happened in a time of political instability following the government’s downfall as a result of the Marrakesch migration deal; the liberal government in coalition with the conservative N-VA are in decline, while the ideological division between the two main parties is growing. While the Flemish vote leans more towards the right, the French community is swinging towards the left.

The results are aligned with the general election, awarding big gains for the far right secessionist Vlaams Belang (EAPN). The secessionists thus established themselves as the second largest party after the N-VA (ECR). Meanwhile, Brussels and Wallonia join the Franco-German green wave as Ecolo (G-EFA) becomes the second largest party, following the centre-left PS (S&D).

Bulgaria (17 seats)

Turnout: 30% (-5%)
System: proportional with preferential voting, no threshold.

The ruling conservative and populist party GERB (EPP) won a plurality in the European elections, garnering 31% of the vote. GERB is trending upwards from their 2014 result, which had been 24%. The populist, socialist party BSP (S&D) comes second with 24% of votes, ahead of liberal DPS (ALDE) with 12% and Eurosceptic VMRO (ECR) at 8%. A coalition of Green and EPP parties, called DB, secured 7% of the vote.

EPP will secure the lion’s share of Bulgarian seats, taking seven. S&D comes second with five, followed by ALDE at three. The ECR is the last group to secure Bulgarian seats, with two.

Croatia (12 seats)

Turnout: 30% (+5%)
System: open-list proportional representation, single constituency.

The ruling liberal-conservative HDZ (EPP) and the social democratic SDP (S&D) have each obtained four MEPs despite huge popular vote losses that left them with a 23% and 19% of vote share, with respective losses of 19% and 8% of votes compared to 2014.

The Croatian Eurosceptic conservatives HR (ECR) secured one seat, as did the former mayor of Zagreb, Kolakušić (independent). The anti-globalist and mild Eurosceptic Human Shield ŽZ (EFDD) also secured one seat, as did the social liberal Amsterdam Coalition. Parties such like the centre-left ethnic regionalist Independent Democratic Serb Party (SDSS) or the right-wing Croatian Party of Rights have failed to secure a seat.

Cyprus (6 seats)

Turnout: 45% (+1%)
System: open list proportional representation, Hare quota for threshold.

The ruling Democratic Rally (EPP) came in first with 29% of votes, down from the 38% garnered in 2014. Following them is the left-wing opposition party, AKEL, at 27%. As it was the case in 2014, these parties have secured two seats each. The center-left Democratic Party comes third with 14% and also secures two seats, one up from the 2014 elections. This leaves the Socialist party with no representation in the European Parliament.

Niyazi Kızılyürek, who is AKEL’s second candidate, will be the first Turkish Cypriot to sit in the European Parliament. Consequently, Turkish Cypriots are regarded in Cyprus as the biggest winners of this election.

Czechia (21 seats)

Turnout: 29% (+11%)
System: single-constituency proportional.

The ruling centre-right ANO 2011 (ALDE) have won the election with 21% of the vote, gaining six seats. They are followed by the soft Eurosceptic and conservative Civic Democratic Party ODS (ECR), which won 14% of the votes and four seats, doubling their representation.

Czech Pirates come in third with 14% of the ballots and three seats, two points ahead of the EPP liberal-conservative coalition led by TOP 09. Their fellow EPP members, the century-old Christian democrat KDU–ČSL, will send and MEP supported by 7% of electors. On the extremes of the political spectrum, the Europhobic far-right SPD (EAPN) won two seats and 9% of the vote, ahead of the Communists with 7% and a single seat.

This is the first time the Czech Social Democratic Party fail to win any seats since Czechia entered the EU, hitting an all-time low of 4%. The vast majority of their votes are believed to have gone to the Pirates, who are pro-EU yet very sceptical of political elites.

Denmark (13 seats)

Turnout: 66% (+10%)
System: single-constituency proportional.

The ruling Venstre (ALDE) surprisingly emerged as the big winners, collecting three MEPs. They were expected to hit a three-decade low in the coming general election, but this win will put a question mark on the polls’ ability to predict election results. Radikale Venstre, also an ALDE member, doubled their seat count from one to two, banking on the highly popular Commissioner for Competition and ALDE lead candidate Margrethe Vestager.

The Danish Social Democrats (S&D) marginally increased their vote share, keeping their three seats. On the other hand, the Conservatives (EPP) have seen their vote share drop by almost 3%, albeit they preserve their single MEP. On the anti-EU front, the Danish People Party (ECR) were the night’s losers. They have seen their support reduced by more than 15%, retaining only one of the four seats secured in 2014.

Estonia (6 seats)

Turnout: 38% (+1%)
System: single-constituency proportional, no threshold.

The centrist, classical liberal Reform party (R – ALDE) scored a clear victory with 26% of the vote, and is thus confirmed as Estonia’s largest party. It finished a mere three points ahead of SDE, a centre-left party that bounced back from recent disappointments to score 23%, ten points more than in 2014. Populist centrist party Centre (K – ALDE) is third, with a disappointing 14%. Far-right party EKRE (EAPN) comes fourth with 12% of the vote, beating centre right party Pro Patria (I – EPP), whose decline continues unabated, collecting just above 10% of the vote.

Estonia has been a happy hunting ground for pro-European forces this year, with ALDE netting three of the country’s six available seats in the European Parliament, and S&D gaining two. The sole remaining seat goes to the far-right group EAPN. Estonia will gain an additional, seventh seat after Brexit, and the EPP will be the beneficiary with Pro Patria entering the parliament.

Finland (13 seats)

Turnout: 41% (+2%)
System: single-constituency proportional

In Finland, as in several other Member States, the Green Party (G-EFA) made important strides in the election, ending at around 16%, a six-point increase from the last election that will grant them a second seat. However, the liberal-conservative party, Nationella Samlingspartiet (EPP) is still considered the winner of the election, with around 20.8% (slightly lower than 2014) and two MEPs.

The Social Democrats (S&D) finished third at around 15%, gaining two MEPs. The True Finns party (ECR) rode their anti EU and anti immigration campaign to 14% and two seats themselves.The big loser in Finland is the Centre Party (ALDE), which plummeted by six points to 14%, suffering from the resignation of the coalition government they were a part of, back in March. The liberal Swedish minority party, Svenska folkpartiet (ALDE), loses a few votes, sitting at 6% but keeping its single seat.

France (74 seats)

Turnout: 50.1% (+7%)
System: single constituency, proportional, 5% threshold.

France headed to the polls after months of demonstrations by the yellow vests, in the presidential majority’s first real test since Macron’s electoral triumph two years ago. This election was a de facto referendum on the president’s agenda and the campaign had more to do with domestic matters than with European issues.

The yellow vests tried to come up with a common list, but they got no more than two thousand votes on Sunday. Their voters mainly turned up to support Marine Le Pen’s rebranded National Rally (EAPN), which came on top with 23% of the vote and twenty-two seats, two down from 2014. Macron’s party, LREM (ALDE+), are in second place in a very close race, as they got 22% of the ballot papers and twenty-one MEPs.

France is no exception to the green wave, with the French Greens securing their second-best result ever in an election of this kind. They were supported by 13% of voters and will get twelve seats, partially at the expense of Mélenchon’s far left Indomitable France (GUE/NGL), which plummeted to 6% of the votes. The traditional pillars of French politics, the Republicans and the Socialists, keep losing popular support and are heading towards irrelevance. The Republicans got 8% of the vote and eight MEPs, twelve down from 2014; the socialists, 6% and 5 seats.

Germany (96 seats)

Turnout: 61.4% (+13%)
System: single constituency, proportional with no threshold.

The elections delivered the Große Koalition a terrible blow. Weber’s Christian Democrats CDU-CSU (EPP), while still the largest party, dropped by 6% compared to 2016, ending up at 29% of the vote, with 29 seats. Centre-left SPD (S&D) endured more severe losses, scoring 15.8% (-11.5%) and securing only 11 seats. Party leader Andrea Nahles has resigned in the wake of what is the party’s worst election results in living memory.

The Greens, on the other hand, have grounds for hope as they surge to second place, netting 20% of the vote and 21 MEPs – almost doubling their 2014 result. With one third of voters under 30 casting a vote for environmental protection, there is talk of a Greta effect. The right-wing populist AfD (EAPN) reached 11% and got eleven seats, quelling fears that Germany would turn sharply to the right.

German seats will also be filled by the left-wing Die Linke (GUE-NGL), which got 5.5% and five representatives; the liberal FDP (ALDE), with similar figures; the satirical Die Partei, which collected a 2.4% protest vote and secured two seats; and Free Voters (EDP), with two MEPs. The remaining five seats will be taken by the Human Envornment Animal Protection party, the Ecological Democratic party, the Family party, Volt Europa, and the German Pirates.

Greece (21 seats)

Turnout: 59% (-1%)
System: single-constituency proportional, 3% threshold.

Greece has seen a fairly even split between the two local major parties, with the ruling soft Eurosceptic Syriza (GUE/NGL) getting six seats and the pro-European Nea Demokratia (EPP) obtaining eight. The opposition party, which suffered heavily for its role in Greece’s corruption scandals and economic hardship, bounced back ahead of Syriza by exploiting popular opposition to the name deal with North Macedonia.

The locally minor Communist Party (NI) and neo-Nazi Golden Dawn (NI) fared marginally, gaining two seats each, and a coalition of centre-left pro-european movements, KINAL (S&D) also gained two seats. The remaining seat was won by Solution for Greece, (Others), a three-year old eurosceptic party that openly admires Russian strongman Vladimir Putin.

Hungary (21 seats)

Turnout: 43% (+14%)
System: single constituency, proportional representation.

As expected, the ruling right wing Fidesz have come in first with 52% of the vote, securing 13 seats, one up from 2014. Viktor Orban’s party, currently in the EPP with suspended membership, ran a campaign personally targeting Commission President Juncker and billionaire George Soros.

The remaining seats go to the opposition parties, with the pro-EU DK (Democratic Coalition) taking 4 seats and thus doubling on their current representation. The brand-new and also pro-EU Momentum party, which was one of the surprising winners of the night, got two seats. The biggest losers were on the extremes: the neo-Nazi party Jobbik lost one of their current two MEPs. The socialist MSZP-Párbeszéd are in a similar predicament, as they go down from two to one MEP. Away from the extremes, the centre also suffered, with green centrist LMP failing to retain its outgoing seat as a result of an internal crisis.

Ireland (11 seats)

Turnout: 50% (-3%)
System: single transferable vote with three constituencies

EU elections took place on the same day as local elections and a referendum to relax divorce laws. The results are only partial, since Ireland’s southern constituency is busy with a recount which is likely to take several weeks. Nevertheless, Ireland once more produced overwhelmingly pro-EU elections results, with the ruling Fine Gael (EPP) winning 29% of the vote and five seats. Liberal Fianna Fáil (ALDE) arrived a distant second with 16% of the vote and two seats. The Greens also won two seats, sitting in third at 11%.

Sinn Féin (GUE/NGL) was the night’s loser, defending only one of their three outgoing seats. A collection of independent parties got a collective 23% of the vote, with their flagship Independents 4 Change securing 11%, but its members have no current affiliation in the Parliament. The Labour Party plummeted to 3%, failing to secure a seat. Following Brexit, Ireland will be apportioned two extra seats that would provisionally be taken by Fianna Fail (ALDE) and the Greens (pending recount in Ireland South).

Italy (76 seats)

Turnout: 54% (-3%)
System: proportional preferential voting with five constituencies, electoral threshold at 4%.

Election results in Italy were anomalous compared to European trends. The far-right North League (EAPN) became the largest party in the country, nearly doubling on its results of the 2018 general election. The party, however, scored lower than predicted by polls, collecting 34% of the vote. The opposition centre-left PD (S&D) recovered a part of the votes lost in 2018, coming at 22% – but still light years away from its lofty 2014 victory with 41% of the vote.

The North League’s coalition parties, the Five Stars (EFDD, future affiliation uncertain) dropped from the 33% they scored in the general elections to 18% and third place. Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia (EPP) comes fourth with 8%, followed by far right Fratelli d’Italia (ECR) at 6%. The pro European liberal party Più Europa (ALDE) failed to secure a seat, as did the Greens and the radical left.

EAPN reaps the bounty as a result, gaining 28 seats against the 18 going to S&D. EPP gained 8 seats, and ECR collected 5. Since the future affiliation of the Five Stars is uncertain, their current 14 seats are not going to benefit any of the existing groups in the Parliament at time of writing. Given the poor performance of the Five Stars’ allies elsewhere in the EU, their plan to set up a new group in Parliament has failed.

Latvia (8 seats)

Turnout: 33% (+3%)
System: proportional, single national constituency

Latvians headed to the polls seven months after a general election, where the Russian minority social democrat party Harmony (S&D) came atop the ballot but was excluded from coalition talks. Thus, Latvia resorted to a five-party government coalition between New Unity (EPP), the National Alliance (ECR), the New Conservatives (unaffiliated, but centre-right pro-EU), Who Owns the State? (right-wing, anti-establishment, soft Eurosceptic), and Development/For! (ALDE). All this broad church of parties have in common is that they are not ethnically Russian.

The results had little to do with the 2014 election, confirming the recent volatility of Latvian politics. New Unity got 26% of the vote and two MEPs, down from four in 2014. Harmony, with 17%, and two MEPs, as well as the National Alliance, with 16% and a further two MEPs, doubled their representation. The brand-new liberal party Development/For! performed well at 12%, and the Latvian Russian Union (G-EFA) got 6%. This leaves two government parties without representation in the hemicycle.

Something that might set Latvia apart is the fact that Euroscepticism has been far from a central campaign topic, perhaps due to fear of Russia. Of the mainstream parties, only the National Alliance are close to the far-right, but they are yet to join the Eurosceptic bandwagon.

Lithuania (11 seats)

Turnout: 42% (-5%)
System: proportional with one national constituency

The ballot, held concurrently with the second round of the presidential election, was won by the liberal-conservative Homeland Union (TS, EPP), led by Gabrielus Landsbergis. They have won one fifth of the vote and, in doing so, they have secured three seats. They are closely followed by the centre-left Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP, S&D), which got 16% of the vote and two seats.

Coming in third place were the social liberals of the Liberal Movement of the Lithuanian Republic (ALDE), who doubled their 2014 representation and will send two MEPs this time. Also with two seats were the conservative and ecologist Agrarian and Greens Lithuanian Union (G-EFA). Both the Labour Party (ALDE) and the Polish minority LLRA (ECR) will be sending one representative each.

Lithuania has no parties on the LSDP’s left, for Lithuania banned communist and fascist parties in 1991. Thus, the far-right Order and Justice are the best-known party close to the right extreme of the country’s political spectrum, yet their vote share fell well short of securing a seat.

Luxembourg (6 seats)

Turnout: 84% (-1%)
System: proportional, single nationalconstituency

The conservative CSV (EPP) have obtained their worst result in a European election to this day. Juncker’s party has dramatically dropped from a 37.7% vote share in 2014 to an all-time low of 21.1%, losing one of their three seats. After being excluded from the governing coalition in the 2018 general election, the centre-right party’s further decline in the EP elections evidences the changes in the Luxembourgish political landscape.

Conversely, the ruling DP (ALDE) made significant gains and became the largest party in Luxembourg by just 0.3% of the vote share. Support for Dei Gréng (Greens – EFA) rose to 18% of the voting percentage, albeit their efforts to secure a second MEP have been unsuccessful. LSAP (S&D) retain their single seat with similar numbers to the 2014 EP elections.

Luxembourg is one of the five member states with a compulsory voting system, and so it has the second highest turnout in the EU. However, the small country has not kept pace with the general upward trend across the Union, for the Grand Duchy has seen its lowest ever turnout.

Malta (6 seats)

Turnout: 72% (-2%)
System: proportional, single transferable vote (STV).

There are no party lists in Malta, and candidates are voted individually. They contest the election either endorsed by a party or as independents. In order to get elected, a candidate has to overcome the quota, which is the number resulting from dividing the number of valid votes by the number of seats plus one, i.e. seven. Candidates achieving the quota in the counting process have their remaining votes transferred to candidates further down on the preference list.

The Labour Party of Malta (S&D) sailed on to an astonishing landslide victory, securing 55% of the votes, which is the largest majority won in the island’s electoral history. The party also secured the record as the national party with the highest voting percentage at home in the European Parliament, granting four parliamentary seats to S&D.

The centre-right Nationalist Party (EPP) got 36% of the votes, and the two remaining seats. All other parties and candidates combined got the remaining 7% of the vote. Of these, the largest share (3.2%) goes to the neo-Nazi party Imperium Europa, which advocates for an ethno-nationalist pan-European federation. As such, the party fails to secure a seat.

Netherlands (26 seats)

Turnout: 42% (+5%)
System: proportional representation, single national constituency

Dutch electors were among the first to vote in the four-day-long European elections. While the media attention was centred around the controversial debate between Prime Minister Mark Rutte (VVD, part of ALDE) and Eurosceptic FvD’s head Thierry Baudet (ECR), S&D lead candidate Frans Timmermans stole the spotlight.

In a turn of events, the Dutch centre-left PvdA (S&D) secured six seats to win the election. The so-called Timmermans effect propelled the Dutch Labour party to their best election results in Europe since 2004. On the other hand, the staunchly pro-EU D66 (ALDE) lost two out of the four seats they held in 2014. Rutte’s ruling centre-right VVD (ALDE) and the environmentalist left party GroenLinks (EGP) both increased their number of seats by one, with four and three MEPs respectively.

Geert Wilders’ pro-Nexit PVV (MENF) lost all of its four MEPs. It appears PVV’s voters turned to the other anti-EU party Forum voor Democratie (ECR). Keeping the upward trend of the last provincial elections, the polls forecast a win for Thierry Baudet’s eurosceptic FvD. However, the party ended in fourth place with three seats.

Poland (51 seats)

Turnout: 46% (+22%)
System: proportional representation with a single national constituency, 8% threshold

Poles, much like in the national elections, are mostly split between two parties: the ruling PiS (ECR) and PO (EPP). PiS, which showed more than the usual soft Euroscepticism before the elections by calling for EU powers to be returned to Member States, have garnered 26 seats, confirming their position as the country’s largest party. PO, the party of European Council President Donald Tusk, together with its pro-EU coalition KE, got a little less than PiS, with 22 seats combined. Of this coalition, EPP gained 16 seats, S&D 5 seats, and the remaining seat in other group to be determined.

Wiosna (S&D), which is a brand-new pro-EU party that emerged only in February 2019, managed to grab 3 seats. Konfederacja, a hard Eurosceptic right-wing party, failed to gain any seats in the European Parliament.The turnout of this election doubled for Poland, but still fell somewhat short of EU average.

Portugal (21 seats)

Turnout: 31% (-2%)
System: proportional, single national constituency, no threshold

The ruling PS (Socialist Party, S&D) won the election, securing one third of the votes and nine seats. They are followed by the center-right EPP member PSD (Social Democratic Party), supported by 22% of voters and getting six seats; and BE (Left Bloc, GUE/NGL), whose 10% share of vote will grant them two seats. Surprisingly, People-Animals-Nature party scored 5,08% and obtained its first MEP, who will sit with the rising European Greens.

Romania (32 seats)

Turnout: 49% (+16%)
System: proportional, single national constituency

The vote was a tight race between PNL (EPP), PSD (S&D suspended membership), and the brand-new alliance Alianta 2020. They got 26%, 23%, and 21% of the votes, respectively.

PNL, a conservative-liberal party, won ten seats, four up from 2014, to secure a win not foreseen by the polls, that predicted the social-democratic PSD to win the election. However, PSD have come in closely with their eight elected representatives, thus retaining their current strength in the European Parliament. Also with eight seats come Alianta 2020, a coalition of staunchly pro-EU new parties aiming to represent the interests of all Romanians, against nationalists and populists.

The remaining six seats are evenly split between the social liberal Partidul PRO Romania, founded by former prime minister Victor Ponta, UDMR (EPP), the party representing the Hungarian minority, and PMP (EPP), a center-right party led by the former Romanian head of state Traian Băsescu.

Slovakia (14 seats)

Turnout: 22% (+9pp). System: single constituency, proportional preferential voting, 5% threshold.

The new pro-EU coalition of Progressive Slovakia + SPOLU won the election, gaining 20% of preferences and thus obtaining four seats (two in ALDE and two in EPP). Below, we find ruling SMER – SD party (16%, three seats in S&D) and only then far-right L’SNS (12%, two unaffiliated seats).

While Slovakia is the member state with the lowest turnout, it is nearly the double of what it was in 2014, following the upward cross-border trend.

Slovenia (8 seats)

Turnout: 28%.
System: proportional with preferential voting, one national constituency, 4% electoral threshold.

The populist, conservative SDS party (EPP) won a large plurality with 26% of votes. This party is known for its adoption of Donald Trump as a role model, and for having Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban as an affiliate and patron, signifying Slovenia’s recent shift to the right.

Centre-left SD (S&D) come in second, with 18% of the vote, ahead of LMS (ALDE) with 15%. The latter is a catch-all party founded and headed by former comedian and journalist Marjan Sarec. All other parties have failed to secure a seat, save for the centre-right NSi (EPP), which scored 11%.

EPP gets the lion’s share of seats in Slovenia, gaining four out of eight. The two remaining seats go to S&D and ALDE, respectively.

Sweden (21 seats)

Turnout: 55% (+4%)
System: proportional, single national constituency

The run-up to the European elections in Sweden was rocked by three political scandals: incompatibilities, travel expenditure, and sexual harassment accusations. They affected, respectively, the Liberal Party’s (ALDE) top candidate, Cecilia Wikström, Left Party’s (GUE-NGL) Malin Björk, and Sweden Democrats’ (ECR) Peter Lundgren. The election results reflected this.

The scandals mostly damaged the Liberals, who will hang on by the skin of their teeth and secure one seat, from the two obtained in 2014. On the other hand, it is the far right Sweden Democrats who emerge as the perceived winners, scoring 15% (5% up from 2014) and thus sending three MEPs. The Moderate Party (EPP) also made gains, polling at 17% and securing four seats. The Centre Party (ALDE) nearly doubled their vote share to get 11% of the ballots and two seats.

The largest party is still the Social Democrats (S&D) with 23% and five MEPs, a slight decrease from the last election. The Christian Democrats (EPP) scored a minor success, ending at 9%. Despite getting 11%, the Green Party (G/EFA) cannot be happy with the result, as they lost 5% from 2014. The only Party to be expelled from the European Parliament were Feminist Intiative (S&D) which scored a measly 0.8%.

Spain (54 seats)

Turnout: 65% (+21%)
System: proportional representation, single national constituency, no threshold.

The ruling social-democrat PSOE emerge as the night’s winners and take a twenty-seat tally, with the first double-digit victory in share of vote since 1994. The results were an ugly read in the left-wing Podemos’s headquarters; in spite of their gaining one MEP to make a total of six, they are five seats below the bar set by their 2014 combination with IU, now without representation.

The conservative PP come in second and will send twelve representatives, four down from their 2014 figures. The liberal Cs are third with seven seats, up from the six obtained in 2014 if we count the now-irrelevant UPyD four MEPs. Further on the right we find the Eurosceptic and nationalist Vox’s three parliamentarians.

The Catalan pro-independence parties keep their five MEPs, with the left-leaning Ahora repúblicas (now republics) obtaining three MEPs, one up from 2014, and the right-leaning Junts (together) sending two representatives. Closing the table is the Coalition for a Solidary Europe, formed by centred non-separatist nationalist and regionalist, who will be represented by one member.

This election, with an unusually high turnout, was held on the same day as local and regional elections in Spain, only four weeks after a general election with similar figures. For the Catalan pro-independence parties, the campaign revolved around independence. Vox, adamantly opposed to it, also treated this issue with prominence. For the rest of the parties, the European election revolved around social issues, and their preferred way to achieve an even-closer union in Europe.

United Kingdom (73 seats)

Turnout: 37% (+4%)
System: proportional, no threshold, twelve constituencies.

The Brexit Party won a plurality in the UK, with 32% overall and 29 seats. They advocate leaving the EU without a deal but have no other policies as yet. Combined with UKIP, the only other party to advocate this policy, 35% of votes went to parties advocating a no deal Brexit.

Pro Remain parties won more votes than those advocating no deal. The Liberal Democrats (ALDE) won 20% of the vote and 16 seats, up from 7% and 1 seat in 2014. The Green Party (G-EFA) won 12% of the vote and 7 seats. Newly-launched Change UK secured 3.4% of votes but failed to get representation. The pro Remain Scottish National Party (S&D) took 38% of the vote in Scotland and 3.6% nationally, electing 3 MEPs. 1 MEP was elected for Plaid Cymru (G-EFA) in Wales, equating to 1% of votes nationally.

The Conservatives (ECR) campaigned on their negotiated deal and lost 15 of their 19 seats and reduced their vote share from 24% to 9%, their worst result in history. Meanwhile, Labour’s (S&D) Brexit policy of delivering Brexit following a general election and possibly backing a confirmatory referendum was not clear to voters. They finished third, dropping from 20 MEPs to 10 and 25% of the vote to 14%.

Turnout was lower in Northern Ireland than in 2014, down from 52% to 45%. They used a separate preferential system with a threshold of 155,000 votes. Alliance (ALDE) won the first seat, while the UUP (ECR) lost the seat they had held since 1979. The far right unionist party DUP (unaffiliated) and Sinn Fein (GUE) took the remaining two seats.

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Congress

All 350 seats in Congress are up for election on a provincial basis. Electoral law gives each of the fifty Spanish provinces two MPs, while the autonomous cities of Ceuta and Melilla in North Africa get one each. The remaining 298 seats are apportioned according to the largest remainder method, resulting in the distribution in the picture below.

General elections in Spain run on a closed list system combined with the d’Hondt method, also known as Jefferson’s. Thus, the result is, in principle, proportional in each constituency. However, practice brings some unexpected results.

As it turns out, 145 MPs come from constituencies where fewer than seven MPs are elected, which is very unfavourable to a nation-wide proportional outcome, as vote is fragmented in almost all the constituencies. This has a detrimental effect on parties that lack a vote stronghold despite polling decently at the national level. Indeed, this system has historically favoured the two mainstream parties, the conservative PP and the socialist PSOE, as well as the nationalist parties radicated the Basque Country and Catalonia.

Senate

The upper house, which consists of 266 members, has all its 208 directly elected seats open for contest in this election. The remaining 58 are appointed by the autonomous communities’ legislative bodies and their terms depend on the regional assemblies’ confidence, not on the result of a direct vote. They will retain their seats irrespective of what happens on Sunday.

The Constitution gives each mainland province four senators, irrespective of its population. The larger islands elect three while the smaller islands or groups have one representative. Ceuta and Melilla are apportioned two senators each.

In the case of this house, the system in use is plurality-at-large: the ballot paper consists of all the candidates standing for election in the pertinent constituency, and electors pick a maximum of three (two in the islands electing three senators, Ceuta, and Melilla; one in the islands electing one).

It is common that voters pick all three (or two) candidates endorsed by their favourite party, so most constituencies have three senators from the party winning the Congress election and one from the second, as Senate votes are highly aligned with Congress ballots.

Traditionally, the Senate has only acted as a second-reading chamber, so it has customarily received little to no attention (indeed, Senate results are given a few minutes of coverage every electoral night, compared to the hours Congress gets). However, this house has acquired renewed prominence following the Catalan crisis in 2017: it has exclusive powers when it comes to Section 155 of the Spanish Constitution, that is, the central government imposing direct rule on an autonomous community. This may bring about renewed voting patterns, and several tactical voting initiatives are becoming viral these days.

Main parties

For the first time ever, as many as five nation-wide parties are contesting the election and are expected to get at least 10 seats. They are scattered across the left-right spectrum and their stance on hot topics like the regions’ powers tends to be more prone to centralism the more on the right they are, but their differences trascend this divide.

There are also regional parties on both the right and left of the political spectrum in many parts of Spain, with a view of their region’s status in Spain ranging from defending the status quo to the active seeking of their independence. Not all of them are expected to be politically relevant in this general election, especially those that will contest it in coalition with larger parties, but those from Catalonia and the Basque Country have been especially relevant as they have often been kingmakers in Spanish politics, and that is the reason why they are given some attention in this article.

Partido Popular (People’s Party, EPP)

They are currently the largest party in Congress, with 137 out of 350 MPs and command a strong majority in the Senate, with 148 out of 266 seats. Their leader, Pablo Casado, was elected following the no-confidence motion that forced Rajoy out of the premiership and his subsequent resignation as party leader.

Contrasting with Rajoy’s general preference for moderation and general reluctance to tackle social issues or the Catalan crisis, Casado describes himself as a man of action and has promised to impose home rule in Catalonia from day one. While the People’s Party are not supportive of further decentralisation, they do not advocate for a stronger central state but for more harmonisation by means of national law. The party is also in favour of close ties with the Church and of promoting traditions, especially those that stem from religion.

Partido Socialista Obrero Español (Spanish Socialist Worker’s Party, PES)

They are the second party in Congress and the Senate, with 85 and 61 seats respectively. This is the party supporting Pedro Sánchez’s government, relying on the parliamentary support from their partners on the left.

PSOE are a socially progressive party in areas such like LGBT and women’s rights, encompassing this view with a respectful attitude towards the Church and other confessions. They favour a smooth transition towards renewable sources of energy. With regards to Catalonia, they reluctantly supported direct rule once independence had been declared, but here is where the similarities with PP end. PSOE have a federal vision of Spain where the regions enjoy more powers and the different nationalities within Spain have a stronger entity.

Unidas Podemos (United We Can, GUE/NGL)

They are represented by 71 MPs and 20 senators, being the third force in both houses of the Cortes Generales. Their leader, Pablo Iglesias, is a former political sciences lecturer, and often a controversial figure at the time he is widely regarded as an excellent speaker. They supported Pedro Sánchez in the no-confidence motion to oust Rajoy, and they have regularly backed the Prime Minister’s proposals.

Unidas Podemos has economic proposals ranging from social democracy to socialism, and feminist and environmentalist features in most of their policy areas. Unlike PSOE, they lack any government experience -notably, they are junior coalition partners in some regions, but they are yet to assume a national department – and have a stronger push for democratic regeneration and the fight against corruption.

They have a confederal vision of Spain, supporting a looser union between the regions than PSOE. They never agreed to impose direct rule in Catalonia, not even as independence was being declared from the regional parliament, and they do support a referendum on independence. This centrifugal stance is brought to the spotlight way more often in regions with nationalist movements than in the rest of Spain, where they focus more on social issues.

Ciudadanos (Citizens, ALDE)

This is the fourth party in Congress, with 32 MPs but one of the smallest in the Senate, having only have 4 seats in the upper chamber. This party was born as an scission of the Catalan branch of PSOE in 2006 and encompassed a progressive agenda with a rejection of regional nationalism.

They have, with time, become part of national politics and joined the liberal coalition ALDE, and their economic stance varies nowadays from liberal to slightly conservative on most issues. With regards to the territorioal problem, they are opposed to further devolution and advocate some recentralisation of public services, and they enthusiastically voted for direct rule in Catalonia during the 2017 crisis. Albert Rivera, a former lawyer, has led the party since its inception.

Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (Republican Left of Catalonia, Greens-EFA)

They are the fifth delegation in Congress with 9 MPs and the fourth group in the Senate, with 12 seats. This party is older than the Spanish democratic regime itself and has long been Catalanist, left-leaning, and republican. When short of a majority, socialist governments have traditionally relied on their support, as they generally see eye to eye with them on social issues and economic policy.

It was in the last decade that they brought the Catalan question into the mainstream debate, advocating for an independent Catalonia. In Catalan politics, they have propped up the regional government since 2012 with their leader, Oriol Junqueras, as deputy First Minister until Catalonia was put under direct rule in the aftermath of the 2017 crisis.

Junts per Catalonia (Together for Catalonia, non-inscrits)

They currently have 8 MPs and 4 senators, and they are the successor of Convergencia i Unió (Convergence and Union, ALDE), the traditional Catalanist party on the right, commanding the regional government of Catalonia ever since 1980 except for the 2003-2010 hiatus, when a socialist-led coalition took control. It was only after the 2012 Catalan election that CiU bidded for independence, amidst the economic crisis in Spain and with their popularity in historical lows in the region.

Their current leader and former First Minister of Catalonia, Carles Puigdemont, keeps pushing for the region to unilaterally pursue independence, so the party might end up isolated in the Cortes Generales as Esquerra Republicana are seen as more pragmatical. Throughout Spanish democratic history, they have been able to strike confidence and supply deals with either PP or PSOE, proving themselves to be a reliable partner in the days before they decided to put a question mark on Catalonia being part of Spain.

Euzko Alderdi Jeltzalea-Partido Nacionalista Vasco (Basque Nationalist Party, ALDE)

Currently represented by 5 MPs and 6 senators, they have been in control of the Basque government since its autonomy’s restoration except for the 2009-2012 term. Defenders of all-things Basque and, especially, the singular fiscal compact the Basque provinces enjoy by tradition, they have never spoken in favour of independence nor have they committed to the Basque Country remaining a part of Spain forever.

They support the Catalan question being resolved by means of a referendum and always push for further powers being transferred to the regions, but they put the focus away from the territorial question. Socially, they lean towards conservatism yet they are not opposing modernisation, and they do support a liberal economic policy.

Euskal Herria Bildu (Build the Basque Fatherland, GUE-NGL)

With 2 MPs and 1 senator, they are one of the smallest forces in the Cortes Generales. They caucus with PSOE and Podemos in most social and economic issues, their biggest differences with them arising in their vision of the Basque Country, as they are boldly in favour of its independence from Spain. They are also strong proponents of the Basque language and culture, and they put an accent on anti-capitalism as well as ecologism and feminism.

Vox (Voice)

Currently unrepresented in the Cortes Generales, this party was created in 2013 by People’s Party defectors on the right wing on the party. Their founders left the party as Rajoy, with a majority in both houses, moderated his party’s stance on social issues and refused to deal harshly with the Catalan question. Their main focus is recentralising the state and they are grousingly nationalistic.

Unlike the other parties, they oppose the Schengen acquis and want powers to flow back to Madrid from the EU. Their leader, Santiago Abascal, is fervently Catholic, and has aligned himself with the likes of Matteo Salvini and Steve Bannon. The party has a traditionalist vision of Spanish society without room for feminism or LGBT rights; notably, this party opposes abortion, same-sex marriage, adoption of children by same-sex couples and trans persons having their names changed. On the other hand, they take a hard stance on immigration, having pledged to build a wall with Morocco in Ceuta and Melilla.

This party gained widespread national attention in two key moments: one, in the aftermath of the 2017 Catalan crisis, as they took part in the trial following the declaration of independence; and secondly, in December 2018, when they polled at 11% and took twelve seats in the regional elections in Andalusia, more than any of the polls had predicted.

Polls

As a result of electoral law, no polls may be published in the five days prior to the election, so the latest data available came out on Monday night, following the first of two debates between Pablo Casado, Pedro Sánchez, Pablo Iglesias, and Albert Rivera. It is understood that PSOE will win the election, and PP will come in second. The battle for the third place is expected to be closely fought between Unidas Podemos, Ciudadanos, and Vox, and the nationalist vote will not undergo significant change where regional parties contest the election.

As the chart suggests, there are broadly two ideological blocs: on the left of the political spectrum, PSOE and Unidas Podemos; on the right, PP, Ciudadanos, and Vox. Each party’s gains have usually been at the expense of others in the same bloc.

There have been three trends in the run-up to the electoral night: PP’s decline starting in October 2017, coinciding with the high of the Catalan crisis, which say Ciudadanos rise both in vote share and seats until Pedro Sánchez took office (June 2018). Following that, Pablo Casado was elected as the new PP leader and pollsters understood some voters would come back to the conservative formation, but both PP and Ciudadanos have been steadily losing ballots to Vox, especially since the Andalusian election in late 2018. Lastly, PSOE have gained popularity at the expense of Unidas Podemos in the last months; however, a shadow is cast on some of the polls involved, since their projections offer substantive differences with most other surveys in favour of the governing party.

What will happen after the election?

It is hard to tell beforehand what will the future government look like, and what follows is pure speculation based on what the different parties have said in the last weeks and simulations carried out by El País.

According to this news report, the most likely scenario would land Spain with the following seat distribution: PSOE, 129 (102-155); PP, 78 (57-103); Ciudadanos (Cs), 46 (24-64); Unidas Podemos (UP), 35 (21-52); Vox, 30 (11-50); and others, 32 (27-37). In brackets, the 90% confidence interval is given, which means that there is a 90% certainty that each party’s tally of seats will fall within these intervals.

The bloc on the left (PSOE and Unidas Podemos) is given a 30% chance to secure a majority and it would be surprising for them not to reach a deal. They might need the support of the Basque and Canarian nationalists (additional 15% chance), and then the negotiations would likely be more complex.

On the assumption (10% probability) that the bloc on the right will obtain a majority, it has been pointed out that PP and Ciudadanos will likely make a deal with each other following the electoral night, but they would need the right-wing Vox to secure the legislative’s confidence.

It is also too early to rule out a PSOE-Ciudadanos government, which would be viable in 19% of the simulated scenarios. They already secured a deal back in early 2016, but it was voted down by Congress, and Pedro Sánchez has dodged the question of whether he would govern with Ciudadanos or not.

This leaves the prospect of a government with a different composition or an impromptu general election, if such an option is not invested with the lawmakers’ confidence. This scenario is the outcome of 27% of the simulations.

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Current polls show the social democratic party Harmony being confirmed as the most popular parliamentary faction ahead of the incumbent Union of Greens and Farmers and a joint list of liberal parties, although populists have also made gains. There is a 5% threshold to enter Parliament.

MAIN PARTIES

1 – Harmony

Harmony is a social democratic party born from the merger of centrist and center-left parties, as well as defectors from Latvia’s Social Democratic Workers’ Party. Harmony currently has the largest single parliamentary group with twenty seats out of 100, making it the effective leader of the opposition. While economically center-left, the party is socially conservative, in line with its voter base, although it has recently expressed support for a recognition of legal rights for same-sex couples. Additionally, Harmony seeks to represent the Latvian Russian-speaking minority.

Internationally, Harmony has voted against sanctions on Russia over Crimea. While in favour of continued EU and NATO membership, Harmony seeks to reduce defense spending nd has advocated for an improvement in ties with the Kremlin.

2 – The Union of Greens and Farmers

The Union of Greens and Farmers is the leader of the current government coalition, which also includes the liberal-conservative party Unity and the right wing National Alliance. The Union is ideologically Green-Conservative and its de facto leader and financial backer is Latvian oligarch Aivars Lembergs, who is facing a long-standing investigation over bribery and money-laundering.

The Union’s electoral pledge centers on the reduction of public administrative staff, to be balanced with an increase in public spending in the form of family benefits related to child support. The Union is explicitly against LGBT rights, much like its 2014 coalition party National Alliance, and has declared any cooperation with Harmony and other Russian-friendly parties as a red line. In terms of foreign policy, they champion a continued Latvian alignment with the European Union and NATO.

3 – Who Owns The State?

This party, abbreviated in Latvian as KPV, is an anti-establishment and catch all party led and founded by former actor and radio host Artuss Kaimiņš. The KPV is poised for big gains in the coming elections, and while their anti establishment stance seeks to mobilise voters from all political walks of life, some of their talking points have recently grown in specificity.

KPV wants to scrap Latvian ministries, replacing them with a system of secretariats answering directly to the Cabinet in order to centralise the allocation of government funding. Their tax policy would see reduced burdens for small taxpayers and pensioners, while shedding VAT and real estate tax. In Latvia’s strictly conservative political environment, the KPV have pledged to hold a referendum on same sex marriage and abide by the result, not casting their support for either of the positions.
The party takes a strong anti immigration stance and seeks further EU cooperation in protecting the Union’s external border.

POLLS

Forecasts see Harmony being confirmed as the most popular party in Latvia, if with lower ratings than 2014, polling at just above 17%. The Union of Greens and Farmers is a distant second below 10%, followed by the KPV. The latter have experienced a recent surge in support as voters turn their back on more established options.
This is particularly stark in the case of the liberal, pro-European New Unity, a joint list comprising several smaller entities as well as the old Unity party, a dominant faction in Latvian politics for many years. New Unity is currently polling at below 4%, under the threshold needed to enter parliament.
The right wing National Alliance, an established and vocally anti-Russian and anti-immigration party championing the cause of Latvian ethno-nationalism, is also making gains: the party ranks at 7%.

It is unclear how Latvian political parties will deal with what is likely to be a very fragmented parliament, especially considering the isolation of Harmony from the vast majority of the political spectrum.

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The 2018 elections promise to be a nail-biter, with the far-right Sweden Democrats potentially becoming the 3rd or 2nd largest party.

MAIN PARTIES

1 – The Social Democrats

The Social Democrats (S) have spent the last four years in government, together with the Green Party (MP, Miljöpartiet). Rather astoundingly Stefan Löfven (leader of S) opted to keep the Left Party (V, Vänsterpartiet) out of government. With only 37.9% of the popular vote and 138 out of 349 seats (39.5%) in the Riksdag, the Löfven Cabinet is one of the weakest minority governments in Swedish history, and as such they have been forced to rely heavily on the support of other parties, and have not been able to implement a lot of policies they set out to do following the election victory.

2 – The Moderate Party

The Moderate Party (M) under Fredrik Reinfeldt ruled Sweden between 2006 and 2014. It was a coalition cabinet consisting of the four parties in the centre-right Alliance for Sweden: the Moderate Party, Centre Party (C), Liberal People’s Party (L) and the Christian Democrats (KD). The cabinet was installed on 6th October 2006, following the 2006 general election which ousted the Social Democrats after twelve years in power. It retained power after the 2010 general election but only as a minority government, and is the longest-serving consecutive non-social democratic Swedish government since Erik Gustaf Boström’s in 1900.

While they managed to keep power for two consecutive terms, the Reinfeldt Cabinet was shaky from the start. On October 7th, 2006, the day after the new cabinet was announced two of the ministers, the Minister for Foreign Trade Maria Borelius and the Minister for Culture Cecilia Stegö Chilò, admitted that they had previously employed persons to take care of their children without paying the appropriate taxes. On October 11th, 2006, it came to light that Cecilia Stegö Chilò and her husband had not paid their TV license for the last 16 years. On October 12th, 2006, it emerged that two other ministers in the cabinet had neglected to pay the television license.

3 – The Sweden Democrats

The Sweden Democrats was founded in 1988. The party has its roots in Swedish fascism and was a part of the white supremacy neo-Nazi movement through the early-1990s when it first began distancing itself from its past. Since 2014 the party has substantially increased its support among both foreign-born and foreign-background voters, becoming the third largest party in Sweden also among this demographic by 2017. Despite hard efforts by current party leader Jimmie Åkesson to “clean” up the party, it has been stained by several major scandals.

In November 2012, party spokesperson Erik Almqvist resigned after he had been caught on tape making racist and sexist statements. Another video later surfaced, showing how Almqvist, in addition to party spokesperson Kent Ekeroth and party official Christian Westling were arming themselves with aluminium pipes before they sought out a confrontation with Soran Ismail, a Swedish comedian of Kurdish descent. In November 2013, parliamentarian and then vice party leader Jonas Åkerlund gained attention for having called immigrants “parasites” during a broadcast on SD’s own radio station in 2002, after the recording was publicly rediscovered.

In September 2014, a few weeks before the general election, the party chairman of the local Stockholm branch, Christoffer Dulny, resigned from his position. He had been posting mocking comments about immigrants, calling them “shameless liars” on alternative media sites. And just a few days ago, Jimmie Åkesson attacked a national radio station, P3, calling them a left-liberal channel, slamming them as a worthless radio station posting “fake news”.

Despite these and other incidents, their hardcore anti-immigration policies and promises to improve the situation for the elderly, people working in health care, and other “exposed” demographics have allowed them to garner a lot of popular support.

POLLS

Forecasts see the current governmental parties, S and MP polling around 30% together, with the Left Party scoring 10%. Despite scoring so low, S is still the largest party in Sweden, closely followed by the Sweden Democrats at around 20%, and the Moderate Party at 18%.

The four centre-right parties (excluding the Sweden Democrats) together rack up around 37%, which would not be enough to gain a workable majority.

The Left Party and the Sweden Democrats will likely be in a position to bargain for important roles in the Swedish cabinet, as they could greatly aid a government. With that said, the Left Party would most likely not support a non-social democratic government, and so far, no centre-right party have made any attempt to gather favor with the Sweden Democrats.

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The controversial referendum, held on 16 April 2017, involved multiple changes to the Turkish institutional set-up. The main changes include the holding of joint elections, the unification of the figure of “Head of State” and “Head of Government”, increasing the number of MPs to 600 from 550 and limitations on the legislative power of the Parliament.

In addition, under the new constitutional framework, the president can maintain an affiliation to his political party and can appoint four out of 13 judges of the Supreme Board of Judges and Prosecutors.

The elections, previously scheduled for the 3rd November 2019, have been anticipated and will see the full implementation of the constitutional reform.

Parliamentary election

The 600 members of the Grand National Assembly of Turkey, the country’s unicameral legislative body, will be elected across 87 electoral districts through a party-list proportional representation system.  Seats will be distributed in proportion to the number of votes received by the party and on the basis of a list of candidates. A threshold of 10%, first introduced in 1982, is required for parties wishing to get into Parliament.

There are two main alliances running in the parliamentary election: the People’s Alliance and the Nation’s Alliance.

The former is a joint effort including AKP, Erdoğan’s party, and the Nationalist Movement party (MHP). The two will run together in both elections. A third member, the Free Cause Party (HÜDA-PAR) will support the alliance in the presidential election, but not in the parliamentary one.

The latter includes the liberal conservative İYİ Party, the sunni Felicity Party (SP) and the social democratic Republican People’s Party (CHP). The Nation’s Alliance has been criticised by the People’s Alliance as a ‘non-conformists’ aggregation, due to the variety of views and intentions of the forces it represents.

The pan-islamist Free Cause Party (HÜDAPAR), the left-wing nationalistic Patriotic Party (VATAN), and the pro-minorities People’s Democratic Party (HDP) are running independently.

Main parties

The Justice and Development Party (Turkish: Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi – AKP), founded in 2001 by Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and members of existing conservatives parties, has its roots in Turkey’s Ottoman past and Islamic identity, although party leaders are quick to refuse the label of “Islamic party”.

The Republican People’s Party (Turkish: Cumhuriyet Halk Partisi – CHP), founded in 1919 as a resistance organization and in 1923 as political party, is the main opposition party. The six arrows in its logo represent the key principles of Kemalism: republicanism, nationalism, statism, populism, laicism and reformism.

The latest opinion polls see AKP in the lead at 39.9%. Opposition party CHP are the current runner up with 25.4% of the vote, while the People’s Democratic Party sits a distant third at at 12.3%. İYİ is napping at the heels of the top three, polling at 11.4%, with the Nationalist Movement at 7.4% and Felicity at 2.6%.

Presidential election

The presidential election see Erdoğan as the only candidate for the People’s Alliance, while the Nation’s Alliance candidates all three of its leaders: Muharrem İnce for CHP, Meral Akşener for İYİ, and Temel Karamollaoğlu for Felicity.

Selahattin Demirtaş is running for HDP and Doğu Perinçek for the Patriotic Party, both outside of alliances.

The presidential election consists of two turns. While the three parties of the Nation’s alliance run as separate for the first round of the presidential election, it is expected that the alliance will support the candidate that will move to the second round.

Main Candidates

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been the President of Turkey since 2014 and has previously covered the role of Prime Minister from 2003 to 2014. Seen as the main favorite for this elections, he founded the Justice and Development Party (AKP) in 2001 and was elected as Prime Minister two years after that.

Criticized for his authoritarianism and Islamic chauvinism, Erdoğan has changed the historic secular face of Turkey. The situation escalated when in 2016, an unsuccessfully coup d’état tried to remove Erdoğan from his position. The resulting state of emergency has not yet been lifted.

The main opposition candidate is Muharrem İnce, former physics teacher. He’ll be standing for the secularist Republican People’s Party (CHP). Differently from his colleagues, İnce was able to gather support beyond his core secular base. Should he make it to the second turn, Ince might actually stand a chance.

The latest opinion polls see Erdoğan in the lead for the first turn with İnce and Akşener respectively as runner ups. The second turn sees Erdoğan emerging with a narrow majority both against İnce (53.7 vs. 46.3) and against Akşener (51.2 vs. 48.8).

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The Slovenian Electoral System

Voters will elect the ninety deputies of the Assembly through a mixed system: 88 of these are elected through party-list proportional representation across eight constituencies, each of them composed of eleven seats. The remaining two members of the Assembly are elected through a first past the post system by the Italian and Hungarian minorities respectively; these deputies hold an absolute veto in matters concerning their ethnic groups. Finally, there is an electoral threshold of 4% for parties wishing to get into Parliament.

Main Parties

Several parties will compete for seats, although nobody currently holds the numbers required to form a government without broad coalitions.

1 – The Slovenian Democrats

The Democrats rank among the oldest Slovenian parties, and spent the past four years in opposition. This party was originally a social democratic one, but has since shifted firmly to the rightt The SDS looks to Donald Trump as a model and enjoys the official endorsement of Viktor Orban, which has raised eyebrows in Slovenia and abroad. It runs on a platform that opposes immigration and offers a mix of economic deregulation and social conservatism. Under the slogan “Slovenia first” the Democrats promise lower taxes and higher pensions, with an emphasis on traditional family values. Their candidate, Janez Janša, has led the party for over twenty-five years.

2 – The List for Marjan Sarec

The List is a party founded and headed by a former comedian and journalist. The party is four years old and will be contesting general elections for the first time, bringing far-reaching proposals to the table. The catch-all party wants to introduce preferential voting, scrap the upper chamber and give more powers to the Prime Minister. The List supports universal basic income, wants to fight climate change and opposes privatising strategic firms – but is in favour of a balanced budget and the reduction of debt, as well as private pension schemes.
Their leader, Sarec, is a practicing catholic who supports abortion, the legalization of cannabis and tolerance for LGBT people, and believes true socialism can be found in the teachings of Jesus Christ.

3 – The Best of the Rest

A plethora of smaller parties vies for scraps behind the two most prominent contestants. Chief among these are the Social Democrats, with a bread and butter center left programme aimed at tackling social inequality. Their coalition partners in the previous government, the Modern Center Right, are even further behind: this social liberal, centrist party participated in elections for the very first time in 2014, winning a whopping 34% of votes and forming a government. They have experienced a near-total collapse of support.

Polls

Current polls see the Slovenian Democrats in the lead with 15%, followed by the List for Marjan Sarec at just under 8%. It is to be noted that polls have reported somewhat varying figures and that over 20% of the electorate still counts as undecided. In polls that do not include the “undecided” option, the Democrats are closer to 25% predicted support – which would still require the creation of a coalition to form a government.

Most Slovenian parties have expressed reservations on the possibility of a coalition with the Democrats, labeling them as radicals. The party’s ties to Orban and indirectly to Putin are a cause of nervousness and it’s likely that the Democrats will have to look to the far right for support. Sarec’s List is available to coalition deals with anyone who is not involved in corruption scandals.

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The Hungarian Electoral System

There are a total of 199 members in the Hungarian National Assembly. Of these, 106 are elected through first-past-the-post voting in the single constituencies, while the remaining 93 are elected through proportional representation from one nation-wide constituency. The electoral threshold is set at 5%, although this is raised to 10% for two-party coalitions and 15% for larger coalitions.

Each elector residing in Hungary may cast two votes, one for an individual candidate running in their constituency and one for a party list. On the other hand, voters without a domicile in Hungary may only vote for a party list. It is interesting to note that voters who register as part of one of thirteen officially recognised minorities are not allowed to vote for national parties, but must cast their ballot for the list of their respective minority. The 13 national minorities officially recognized in Hungary are Armenian, Bulgarian, Croatian, German, Greek, Polish, Roma, Romanian, Ruthenian, Serbian, Slovakian, Slovenian and Ukrainian. Minority lists need only a quarter of the votes required for a national party to obtain a first mandate.

Main Parties and Issues

Fidesz

The current government is composed of the right-wing, anti-immigration and anti-Soros Fidesz party, in a coalition with the Christian Democrats. Such is their support, that they have not presented an official manifesto for these elections. The platform they run for can easily be deduced by the posters and slogans which have covered the country in these months leading up to the election. Hungary First is their motto, one which has particularly manifested itself in relations with the EU and the UN. The latter has been strongly criticised for its no-borders approach for the migration crisis, which Hungarians are very opposed to. The strained relations between Hungary and the EU are well-known, as Brussels is considered as an unrepresentative body imposing strict dictas on its member states.

MSZP

The social-democratic MSZP is the largest opposition party, with 28 representatives. In this election, it is running in a coalition together with the green party Párbeszéd. Together, they have an action plan consisting of ten key pledges. Some of the most important of these are: reassigning EU development funds so that they actively benefit Hungarians instead of the government; raising minimum wages and pensions; taxing offshore companies and introducing heavy penalties for environmental pollution; ending poverty by ensuring a social minimum for living, for example by supporting living and health-related expenses; and removing the current Fidesz constitution via referendum.

Jobbik

Thirdly, there is Jobbik. Initially born as a far-right, nationalist party, it has since 2014 redefined itself as a conservative people’s party to increase its pool of voters. It is now the largest anti-establishment party in the country. Jobbik is mainly concerned with fighting corruption and re-establishing the honour and prestige of politics. Their key electoral pledge involves emigration: the aim is to focus on the half million Hungarians who have left the country in the past few years. By tackling the root causes of this emigration – through educational, health, and job reforms – their aim to ensure that no Hungarian citizen has to leave the country to live well. Jobbik also plans on re-establishing independent border guards and the national defence, in order to ensure safety and security in the country.

LMP

LMP is a green-liberal party, focused on the environment and deliberative democracy. One issue which is central for them is the development of independent and autonomous functioning of all government institutions, including city councils, educational institutions and the police. The party is well-known for its fight against corruption, and has promised to make it impossible to evade taxes by any legal or semi-legal means. Moreover, it has proposed the establishment of an anti-corruption public prosecutors office and the reinstitution of the former rights of the Supreme Court, which have been curtailed under the current Fidesz administration.

Democratic Coalition

Lastly, there is the Democratic Coalition, a social-liberal, centrist splinter of MSZP. It is the most pro-European party out of the main ones, actively campaigning for the United States of Europe. Some of their electoral pledges include making basic utilities such as gas and electricity completely free for everyone, raising the minimum wage and creating a European-wide welfare level, decentralising the educational system, as well as expanding key infrastructures in the country (e.g. subways and bridges) in order to reduce traffic.

It is also the only major party that campaigns for the removal of voting rights for Hungarian citizens who have never lived in Hungary. The current legislation on dual citizenship, which was created under the Fidesz government, allows for people who were born and live outside of Hungary, but who are of Hungarian descent, to vote in national elections.

Opinion Polls

Fidesz has about as much support as all the other parties combined, gathering around 50% of approval in opinion polls. Jobbik and MSZP lag far behind, with respectively 15% and 11% of the preferences. LMP and the Democratic Coalition have both settled around 8%, while all other parties will probably not pass the 5% threshold to get into Parliament.

While Orbán is still set for an easy victory, a series of spying allegations, fake news, leaks, counterleaks and corruption scandals which have involved his party and him in particular have all contributed to dampening his support in favour of Jobbik. This all has the potential of stopping Fidesz from regaining its two thirds supermajority, making it harder for them to pass reforms so easily.

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However, given the limited options, a new government formed by both the 5 Star Movement (5SM) and the Democratic Party (DP) it’s in the country best interest, as it would set aside 1) the possibility of a right wing government with both the moderate and the extremist right as main partners, 2) a North League-5SM government and 3) new elections, that would further strenghten DP’s counterparts.

The DP already tried to form a government with the 5SM in 2013, but they failed to reach mutual understanding due to the 5SM hardline. This time could be different: the leader of the 5SM Luigi Di Maio seems more collaborative than his previous colleagues, although how and with whom he intends to carry out the negotiations remains to be seen.

If they were both open to such an agreement, they would have to compromise and share key government positions; the move would not be appreciated by both the respective voter bases, but that’s not surprising: every government coming out of this mess would displease large portions of the electorate. Sure, it is diffcult to imagine how parties which fought like cat and dog throughout the past years could lead a government without significant frictions or agree on a single program in the first place, but that would not be the first time though: the Democratic Party pondered – and consolidated – alliances with Berlusconi and other right-wing parties multiple times in the past.

Another, and maybe more likely, option would be for the DP to offer its external support, by letting the 5SM govern with its vote of confidence in the Parliament’s two chambers. Let’s be clear: doesn’t matter what moves the DP makes, its numbers are not going to rise in the short and the mid-term. As a citizen though, I am more concerned about the future of my country than the party’s fate.
Unfortunately, most of the DP leading figures rule out any form of alliance. They reject this idea with conviction, arguing that the party’s future is clearly to the opposition. That’s an easy way to escape responsibility though: Germany’s Socialdemocratic Party (SPD) offers a clear example of a deafeted party governing the country again to not let the far right gain power; the possibility of an extremist government should worry the Democrats as well. It should also be remembered that the DP is still the second most voted party: a M5S-DP government would represent more italians than a M5S-North League coalition.

Last week a Dutch-led group of North-European countries issued a document which clearly opposes the proto-federalist and reformist pathway outlined by the Franco-German axis, despite the Rome Declaration signed on March 25th; Macron and the German government need a strong, europhile Italy. While the 5 Star Movement is not exactly the best partner for a staunch Europeanist, it is the best we can get at this moment. We can’t allow for Germany and France to be crushed between nationalist approaches from both North and South.

The right has not the needed majority to form a governing coalition, but they are closer than anyone. As we all know, politics is unpredictable and if responsibility does not prevail we could experience the same shock which hit the United States in 2016.

Welcome, President Salvini.

Discover more about the Italian Elections

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The results are give Vladimir Putin an unsurprisingly easy victory, with opinion polls giving him around 70% of thepreferences – ten times more than his nearest challenger. However, this resounding victory for a fourth term as President could be dampened by low turnout due to voter fatigue: with the result so obvious from the start, they is little incentive for Russians to turn up to the polling stations. To try and inflate the turnout, Putin’s officials have allegedly been selling discounted goods at polling stations, and instructing state to photograph themselves at the polling booth and report back to their bosses.

Electoral System

Russian Presidential elections take place every six years in a two-round electoral system. During the first round, an absolute majority is required to win. If no candidate gets 50%+1 of the votes, a second round is held exactly three weeks later between the two candidates with the most votes. To this day, in the six elections which have taken place since 1991, a second round was required only once, and it is unlikely that 2018 will be any different.

According to the Constitution, any Russian citizen who is more than 35, has permanently resided in Russia for the 10 years leading up to the election, and has committed no serious crime can run for Presidency. However, individuals running as independents or with the backing of a political party which is not represented in the State Duma, the lower house of the Parliament, face an additional obstacle. Those with the backing of a political party have to collect 100.000 signatures in support of their candidacy, while for independents that number goes up to 300.000. Moreover, there is a ban on more than two consecutive terms in office, although Presidents are free to run again for a further third and fourth time after sitting out once full electoral term.

Main Candidates and Positions

There are 7 contenders trying to take the title from Putin, although none of them have the support needed to even be a threat to the incumbent President. Here is an overview of who these eight candidates are and what they stand for:

• Vladimir Putin, already thrice President of the Russian Federation, is the clear frontrunner in the race, with the backing of a number of parties throughout the political spectrum. Although he has not presented an electoral programme, and has refused to partake in TV debates with the other candidates, he is easily going to win on a well-known platform and political approach.
• Pavel Grudinin, an engineer and farmer backed by the Russian Communist Party. Since 1995, he runs Lenin State Farm, the country’s biggest strawberry producer, which grows about 60 tonnes daily and boasted 41 million euro in revenues for 2014-2015. His programme is focused on restoring the national economic sovereignty by withdrawing from the WTO, revitalising the external provinces of Russia, introducing progressive taxation, and improving the quality of public administration by making the President’s nominations for official state positions more accountable. Moreover, he supports free healthcare and education, a minimum salary of 25.000 rubles (350 euro), and the provision of affordable healthcare for everyone.

  

• Ksenia Sobchak, a TV anchor and journalist who is backed by Civil Initiative. She is a supporter of free-market capitalism and privatisation. Her manifesto has the rights of women and female representation as one of the key issues, with the salary gap, the absence of women in the higher positions, and the official ban from certain heavy professions as the main points of focus. She has also focused a lot on Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and believes that while the return of that territory without conditions would be impossible, Crimea is rightfully Ukrainian land. To solve this issues, she has suggested a new referendum under more impartial conditions.
• Maxim Suraykin, Chairman of the Central Committee of the Communists of Russia, has presented two different programs: one for his first hundred days of presidency, and one for the subsequent transition period from a capitalist into a communist regime. His aim is the restoration of the USSR, and the mobilisation of the working class in order to overturn the capitalist system.
• Boris Titov, backed by the Party of Growth, is running as President mostly to showcase his party’s economic program, known as Growth Strategy. This would involve diversifying Russian economy and creating high-quality jobs.

  

• Grigory Yavlinsky, an economist running as the candidate for the liberal party Yabloko, is attempting to become President for the third time. is policies mainly focus on improving the economic situation through governance reforms and stopping involvement in conflicts. He has also promised to give out several acres of free land to 15 million families so they can build home there and develop it, and to turn the Russian Armed Forces into a fully professional military by abolishing conscription.
• Vladimir Zhirinovsky, candidate for the Liberal Democratic Party, has promised to amend the Russian Constitution and to radically change the policies of the country. In particular, he would abolish the federal structure of Russia and to return to the Governorates, rename the post of “President of Russia” to the “Supreme Ruler of Russia” and to restore Russia’s borders to the borders of the USSR in 1985.

Polls

According to the polls, the validity of which may be contested as partial, Putin enjoys almost 70% of the vote preferences. Grudinin and Zhirinovsky are coming in next, with only 6% each. However, many voters are undecided, and many more will not go vote, dampening Putin’s resounding victory with vote fatigue.

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