Geography and Culture of Russia

Russia is a transcontinental country located between Eastern Europe and North Asia. It the largest country in the world by area, spanning across 207,595 square kilometres and covering more than one-eighth of the Earth’s inhabited land area, with a population of 144 million citizens. However, about 77% of the population lives in the western, European part of the country. From northwest to southeast, Russia shares borders with Norway, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Poland and Lithuania (considering the Kaliningrad Oblast), Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, China, Mongolia, and North Korea.

Even the symbol of the crowned double eagle and the central crown (connected with the other two crowns) is a striking example of Russian cultural nature. One crowned head looks to Europe symbolising the Western European element, while the other one points to Asia, reflecting the Asian Oriental aspects.

Russian folklore takes its roots in the pagan customs of the ancient Slavs. Some Russian poets, like Yershov and Filatov, created a high number of famous poetical interpretations of classical Russian fairy tales. Alexander Pushkin, instead, created entirely original fairy tale poems. Since the Age of Enlightenment, Russian literature had grown in importance. From the early 1830s on, Russians lived through a period of flourish in poetry, prose, and drama. Tolstoy and Dostoevsky are just two examples of this astounding golden age. When Stalin came to power, the Soviet government started to censor folklore studies considering them part of the old tsarist system and capitalist economy. After that, the government removed fairy tales from bookshelves.

As well as for poetry and literature, Russian cuisine is a collection of the different cooking traditions of the Russian people. It comes from the multi-ethnic expanse of Russia, including influences from Northern and Eastern Europe, Caucasus, Central Asia, Siberia, and East Asia. Based on the peasant food of the rural population, it uses fish, caviar, mushrooms, poultry, pork, berries, and honey in addition to rye, barley, and wheat to prepare many assorted types of bread and alcohol like beer and vodka.

Different from the Russian cuisine is the Soviet cuisine, formed by the integration of the various national cuisines of the Soviet Union. It includes a small number of ingredients and simple ways of cooking. Most dishes were simplifications of Russian, Austro-Hungarian, and Western European (French and Italian, above all) cuisines. Essential elements were the canteens managed by the government called stolovaya.

Society and Religion of Russia

In Russia, almost 170 ethnic groups (considered as nationalities) are present. The populations of these groups can be enormously varied, from millions of Russians and Tatars to fewer than 10,000 like the Eskimo. According to a 2002 poll, 79.83% of the population speak Russian. Additionally, the Russian population is made up of 3.83% Tatars, 2,03% Ukrainians, 0,94% Chechens and 0.78% Armenians.

Russian was the sole official language of the Russian Empire. During the Soviet period, the policies toward the languages of the other ethnic groups depended on political choices. A superior status was reserved for Russian, but even though each republic had its idiom, Russian usually supplanted it even in unofficial contexts. Some tongues like Ukrainian, Latvian and Lithuanian underwent discriminations due to large forced displacements of people. In some regions like Eastern Latvia or Crimea, Russian people were moved and settled following Russification politics.

Now, most of the republics have at least two recognised languages — Russian and the local one. Even religion in Russia includes several different faiths. Eastern Orthodox Christianity is the most widely professed faith, but significant minorities of irreligious people, Muslims, Pagans, and Jews are also present.

Economic Context of Russia

Russia has an upper-middle income mixed economy mainly based on the enormous amount of natural resources, particularly oil and natural gas. It has the 12th largest economy in the world by nominal GDP and the 6th largest by purchasing power parity (PPP). Since 2000, non-traded services and goods for the domestic market, as opposed to oil or mineral extraction and exports, have primarily driven economic growth. Natural gas, oil, metals, and timber account for more than 80% of Russian exports. According to the 2012 statistics, the oil-and-gas sector accounted for 16% of GDP and 52% of federal budget revenues.

Thanks to excess income stored in the Stabilization Fund of Russia, the country managed to repay most of its massive debts. Therefore, it has become one of the countries with the lowest amount of foreign debt among major economies. The Stabilization Fund also helped Russia to come out of the global financial crisis in a better state than many economists had expected. The average nominal salary per month increased from $80 in 2000 to $967 in 2013. Nevertheless, the sanctions imposed by the EU and the USA after the invasion of Ukraine made the entire economic system fall into stagnation with a high inflation rate. Therefore, in May 2016, the average nominal monthly wages had dropped below $450 per month, 13 percent of which are taken away by taxes.

Due to the war in Donbas, the fall of the Russian ruble increased the capital costs for Russian companies who had been paying interests on debt issued in dollars or in other foreign currencies. In 2016, the ruble had devalued by more than 50 percent compared to July 2014. Now, approximately 19.2 million Russians, 13.2% of the population, and one in four children live below the national poverty line. Officially, about 20–25% of the Russian population belongs to the middle class; however, some economists figured out the real share of about 7% after the economic sanctions of the EU and the USA.

Another critical factor for the Russian economy is corruption. Russia is ranked the second-most corrupt country in Europe (after Ukraine), according to the Corruption Perceptions Index. The Norwegian-Russian Chamber of Commerce also states that “corruption is one of the biggest problems both Russian and international companies have to deal with.”

State of Relations between Russia and the EU

The foreign policy concerning Russia is considered the first “common” foreign policy of EU Member States. Moreover, four European Union-Russia Common Spaces have been agreed as a framework within which both can establish better relations. The legal basis for the relations is the PCA (Partnership and Cooperation Agreement) signed in 1994. Since 2007, it is automatically renewed every year. It includes the promotion of economic ties, especially investments and trade.

 Common Economic Space

The aim is to build an open and integrated market between the EU and Russia removing barriers to trade and investment. Additionally, the promotion of reforms and competitiveness, based on the principles of non-discrimination, transparency, and good governance is essential. Environmental issues are also present in this space, including nuclear safety and the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol.

Common Space of Freedom, Security, and Justice

This space saw a huge step forward with the agreements on the Visa Facilitation and the Readmission. Another key issue of this shared space is the cooperation between the European Border Agency (FRONTEX) and the Federal Border Security Service of Russia.

Common Space on External Security

This space deals with effective multilateralism, with joint support for the central role of the UN, OSCE, and the Council of Europe. The parties should have strengthened their cooperation on crisis management and security issues like terrorism and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Nevertheless, the Donbas war and the annexation of Crimea have been a terrible blow to the principles at the base of this common space.

Common Space on Research, Education, Culture

This space addresses the long-standing relations between Russian and EU Research and Development activities, connected under the TEMPUS programme. It aims at reinforcing the EU and Russian cultural and intellectual heritage by strengthening cooperation on education such as through convergence of university curricula and qualifications.

However, when one talks about EU-Russia relations, not everything is rosy. One needs to underline some fundamental issues and disputes.

Crimea

On June 20, 2019, the Council extended the restrictive measures introduced in response to the illegal annexation of Crimea and Sevastopol by Russia until June 23, 2020. The standards, which apply to EU people and EU-based businesses, are limited to the territory of Crimea and Sevastopol.

Sanctions include bans on imports of products originating in Crimea or Sevastopol in the EU, as well as investments in Crimea or Sevastopol. This means that no European citizen and no EU-based company can buy real estate or entities in Crimea, finance Crimean businesses, or provide related services. Tourist services in Crimea and Sevastopol, in particular, European cruise ships cannot call at ports on the Crimean peninsula, except in emergencies.

Moreover, it forbits exports of certain goods and technologies to Crimean companies or those destined for use in Crimea in the transport, telecommunications and energy sectors, as well as of activities concerning the production of oil, gas and mineral resources. It is also forbidden to provide technical assistance or intermediation, construction or engineering services relating to infrastructures in these sectors.

Kaliningrad Oblast

Since 2004, the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad Oblast is surrounded by EU members, isolated from the rest of the federation. Poland and Lithuania shared an external EU border and controls became stricter, leading to small tensions. In 2004, Germany opened a general consulate in the city, allowing Kaliningrad residents to obtain Schengen visas without having to travel to Moscow. Thanks to an arrangement with Poland and especially with the Polish centres of Olsztyn, Elbląg, and Gdańsk, Kaliningrad residents can get individual cards, which permit travel crossing the Polish-Russian border.

Association Agreements and the Invasion of Ukraine

After the Vilnius summit between the EU and its eastern neighbours in 2013, the Russian government succeeded in convincing Armenia and Ukraine to halt the negotiation of association agreements with the EU and instead begin negotiations with Russia. Nevertheless, despite the Russian government’s opposition, the EU summit negotiations were successful for Moldova and Georgia.

As a result of Russian pressure, widespread protests occurred in Ukraine. As a result, President Viktor Yanukovych (a member of the pro-Russian Party of the Regions) left Ukraine for Russia in February 2014. Subsequently, Russia started a military intervention in the border regions of Ukraine, especially in Crimea. It also gave support to the pro-Russian militia in the Donetsk and Lugansk regions. The EU considered this action an invasion and it imposed visa bans and froze Russian officials’ assets.

In 2017, the EU and Ukraine signed the official Association Agreement, which provides for regular summits and meetings among ministers, other officials and establishes a “Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area”. From 2017 on, a visa-free travel regime has been active for Ukrainian citizens.

Russian Political Influence and Pro-Russian Parties in the EU

Russia expanded its political power using a wide range of techniques, including subsidising of political parties, movements and NGOs, spending on online propaganda and working on media broadcasting in EU languages. Many observers associate the Kremlin with an attempt to debilitate the EU and its reaction to the Ukrainian crisis. Russia has formed close ties with Eurosceptic and populist parties at both ends of the political spectrum.

By the end of 2014, various European far-right and far-left parties were getting financial or organisational support from Russia with the goal of assembling a common anti-EU and pro-Russian front in the European Union. Among the far-right parties included were the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ), Alternative for Germany (AfD), National Democratic Party of Germany (NPD), France’s National Front, Italy’s Lega Nord (now just Lega), Hungary’s Jobbik, Bulgaria’s Attack (Ataka), and Latvian Russian Union. Among far-left parties, there were members of Die Linke, Communist Party of Greece and Syriza.

In the European Parliament, the European United Left–Nordic Green Left have been depicted as a “reliable partner” for Russia, voting against resolutions denouncing and condemning Russia’s military invasion of Ukraine and the Russian intervention in Syria.

The Destabilisation of EU Member States

In 2019, Central and Eastern European leaders signed an open letter affirming that:

“Our hopes that relations with Russia would improve and that Moscow would finally fully accept our complete sovereignty and independence after joining NATO and the EU have not been fulfilled. Instead, Russia is back as a revisionist power pursuing a 19th-century agenda with 21st-century tactics and methods. […] It challenges our claims to our own historical experiences. It asserts a privileged position in determining our security choices, and uses overt and covert means of economic warfare, ranging from energy blockades and politically motivated investments to bribery and media manipulation to advance its interests and to challenge the transatlantic orientation of Central and Eastern Europe.”

Moreover, national security agencies in Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia have directly connected Moscow to local pro-Russian groups.

Some evidence of those contacts are the controversial contracts of cooperation established between the Estonian Centre Party, the Latvian Social-democratic Party “Harmony” (cancelled in 2017), and Putin’s party United Russia. Despite the impact of both parties on the national politics (the current Prime Minister of Estonia belongs to the Estonian Centre Party, and the mayor of Latvia to Harmony), these agreements had no impact on both countries joining NATO and the EU. Nevertheless, they are used as an essential tool of propaganda for Russian-speaking minorities in the two Baltic republics.

In November 2015, the president of Bulgaria, Plevneliev, affirmed that Russia had launched a massive hybrid warfare campaign “aimed at destabilising the whole of Europe”, acting with reiterated violations of Bulgarian airspace and cyber-attacks. British analysis of the Russian government’s English-language channel, Sputnik, found “systematic propaganda in favour of the “LEAVE” campaign which was too consistent with being the result of accident or error”.

In 2016, according to the chief prosecutor, Milivoje Katnić, a group of 20 people “planned to break into the Montenegro Parliament on Election Day, kill Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic and bring a pro-Russian coalition to power”. The facts are even clearer since the head of the Russian Institute for Strategic Studies, Leonid Reshetnikov was dismissed by Putin a couple of days after the failed coup.

In 2017, three parliamentary representatives of the far-right German party Alternative for Germany (AfD) confirmed that they received $29.000 during a private jet visit to Moscow; in 2019 an Italian magazine published a transcript describing a private event in Russia at which “tens of millions” in financial support was offered to the League party of Matteo Salvini.

Cyber-attacks and Fake News

In 2007, following the Estonian government’s decision to remove the statue of a Soviet soldier, the Baltic country’s major commercial banks, government agencies, media outlets, and ATMs were targeted by a coordinated cyber-attack, which was later traced to Russia. Later, in April 2015, the French television channel TV5 Monde was targeted by a cyber-attack claimed by ISIL, but French sources said their investigation lead to Russia.

In May 2015, the Bundestag’s computer system was shut down for days due to a cyber-attack carried out by a hacker group that was likely “being steered by the Russian state”, according to the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution in Germany. The agency’s head, Hans-Georg Maaßen, said that, in addition to spying, “lately Russian intelligence agencies have also shown a willingness to conduct sabotage.” British Prime Minister Theresa May accused Russia of “threatening the international order”, “seeking to weaponise information” and “deploying its state-run media organisations to plant fake stories”. She mentioned Russia’s meddling in German federal election in 2017 after German government officials and security experts said there was no Russian interference.

Pro-Russian media have also produced fake stories to influence public opinion in European countries. In 2017, for example, a Russian TV team paid Swedish teenagers to fake anti-government protests in Rinkeby. Even in the Czech Republic, Russia set up tens of websites where conspiracy theories and fake news are published. According to the State Secretary for European Affairs, “The key goal of Russian propaganda in the Czech Republic is to sow doubts into the minds of the people that democracy is the best system to organise a country, to build negative images of the European Union and Nato, and to discourage people from participation in the democratic processes.”

A Lithuanian military analysis stated, “We have a pretty huge and long-lasting disinformation campaign against our society”. In 2018, the European Commission introduced a new Action Plan to contrast “disinformation that fuels hatred, division, and mistrust in democracy” as well as interference with elections, “with evidence pointing to Russia as a primary source of these campaigns”.

Military Threats

In 2015, Russia’s ambassador to Denmark stated that if Denmark joined NATO’s missile defence system, Danish warship “will be targets for Russian missiles”. The Danish foreign minister Martin Lidegaard said the Russian threats were “unacceptable” and “crossed the line”. In response, Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Aleksandr Lukashevich said that Russia could “neutralise” the defence system of Denmark. The following year, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov declared that Russia would “have to take the necessary military-technical action” if Sweden joined NATO.

In 2016, these declarations lead Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Iceland to agree to increase their military cooperation. In 2017, Sweden reintroduced military conscription. Even Lithuania reinstated military conscription and called on NATO to bring more troops into the Baltic countries. Lithuanian president Dalia Grybauskaitė said: “I think that Russia is terrorising its neighbours and using terrorist methods”. In Lithuania, three guides about how to act in the case of a Russian invasion have been published in the last three years.

The Road Ahead

Trying to make sense of what lies ahead in EU-Russia relations is a tough task. In February 2014, a poll promoted by Russia’s largest independent polling centre, the Levada Center, found that almost 80% of Russian citizens shared a “good” feeling about the EU. These data changed drastically after the Ukrainian crisis in 2014. 70% of respondents then declared to have a hostile view of the EU.

Another Levada poll of August 2018, however, states that 68% of Russian respondents believe that “Russia needs to improve relations with Western countries”. Furthermore, 42% of Russians polled said they had a positive view of the EU, up from 28%

Nevertheless, one needs to consider that enormous differences are at play between the European and the Asian part of Russia. Moreover, the repressive attitude toward any internal opposition and journalists is surely worrying and may stop every type of evolution towards positive cooperation. Political attitudes in Moscow and St. Petersburg will determine whether or not a new cycle of relations between Russia and the European Union is possible.

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Geography and Culture of Ukraine

Ukraine is located between the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, and shares a border with multiple European countries: Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Belarus, Moldova, Romania and Russia. This is due to the country’s large size: Ukraine spans across 603,550 sq. km, with a population of 42,418,235 citizens. Most of its national territory is made of great, flat expanses, crossed by large rivers like the Dnieper and the Don.

The city of Kyiv serves as the cradle of Ukrainian culture and national history. The capital and its surrounding areas formed the epicentre of the Kievan Rus’, although the city then knew centuries of diminished political clout after the Mongol invasion. In spite of its woes, Kyiv maintained its position as a centre of the Orthodox faith and a crucial trade node. The capital has undergone an important resurgence since Ukraine’s achievement of independence in 1991. Ukrainian traditions are, of course, heavily influenced by the Eastern Orthodox Church and many holidays, like Christmas and New Year’s Eve, are still based on the ancient Julian Calendar.

During their history, Ukrainians had to endure occupation and domination by many foreign powers, who nevertheless never succeeded in eradicating the country’s national identity. One of the crucial unifying factors was the language and its alphabet – a variant of the standard Cyrillic script and a symbol of national identity. The Ukrainian language derives from Old East Slavic, the official language of Kievan Rus’. Initially, it was called Ruthenian.

Modern Ukrainian has a more recent history, being developed in the late 17^th century during the Cossack Hetmanate. From 1804 until the Russian Revolution, the teaching of Ukrainian was banned from several schools throughout the Russian Empire. Nevertheless, it maintained a sufficient speakers’ base in Western Ukraine, where the language was not prohibited, above all for traveling musicians and literary authors. The standard Ukrainian language is regulated by the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (NANU), by its Institute for the Ukrainian Language, the Ukrainian language-information fund, and the Potebnya Institute of Language Studies. The Ukrainian language retains a degree of mutual understandability with Belarusian and Russian.

Another staple of Ukrainian culture is hopak, usually referred to as the national dance of Ukraine. It’s a folk dance, deriving from a traditional dance of the Zaporozhian Cossacks. This was originally reserved only for men, but the Ukrainian variant is but also danced by couples and groups. Ukrainian culture also includes typical food. The most renowned and typical dishes are Kolbasa, a particular kind of sausage, as well as head cheese and bread. Among the most traditional dishes one can also find borscht, a soup of red beets, and chicken kyiv. Pierogi and pilaf must of course be mentioned. Kutia is a traditional Christmas dish, usually served with a mixture of cooked wheat groats, honey and poppy seeds. For Easter it is very common to prepare pysanky.

Society and Religion

Ukraine is a multi-ethnic country. Ukrainians are 78% of the population, with the biggest minorities being Russians (17.3%), Belarusians (0.6%), Moldovans (0.5%) and Crimean Tatars (0.5%). Other ethnic groups include Bulgarians, Hungarians, Romanians, Poles, Armenians and Greeks. As in other former Soviet territories like the Caucasus, Ukraine is home to between 50,000 and 100,000 Koreans that belong to the Koryo-Saram minority. About 73% of the population is Orthodox, albeit adhering to different Patriarchates. Catholics are mostly concentrated in the western regions, and make up 9.4% of the population. Many Ukrainians (11%) declare themselves as non-religious or unaffiliated. The highest number of Muslims and Hinduists lives in the Donbass region.

An anomaly is represented by the Crimean Tatars, who profess Islam. Unsurprisingly, they mostly present in Crimea, which has been under illegal Russian occupation since 2014. Another cult present in Ukraine is Rodnovery, the native Slavic faith. Only about 0.1% of the population declare themselves as Pagan, with a higher proportion in the central part of the country. The Book of Veles, the main philosophical text from the Rodnover “churches,” is still present in Ukrainian school curricula. Rodnovery has also played a significant role in the War in the Donbass. The Rodnovers, in this case, are split between the pro-Ukrainian Azov Battalion (where they are the majority) and the pro-Russia Svarog Battalion. After the occupation, Russian Rodnovers reorganised some local villages according to Indo-European trifunctionalism – a doctrine which establishes that men are born to be priests, warriors or farmers.

Economic Context

Ukraine is an emerging free market. As with other post-Soviet countries, GDP grew rapidly between 2000 and 2008. Starting with the momentous financial crisis of 2008, Ukraine’s economy alternated periods of strong growth with periods of crisis, although a more comprehensive economic recovery began in 2016. Nevertheless, the Russian invasion of Crimea has damaged Ukraine’s economy and industry. Ukraine is an industrialised country, with the secondary sector accounting for 26% of GDP in 2012. Ukraine is richly endowed with minerals, and their extraction results in a large share of industrial activity. Coal reserves in Ukraine amount to 47.1 billion tons, and almost 85% of the demand for coal and fuel can be satisfied by domestic production. Moreover, during the Soviet era, Ukrainian iron production accounted for 50% of the entire Soviet output of iron. The numbers are even more impressive with manganese: Ukrainian production in the 20th Century amounted to 40% of the entire world’s output.

According to a report published in 2012, Ukraine is the world’s tenth largest steel producer, as well as the sixth largest weapons trader worldwide However, Ukraine imports 90% of its oil and a majority of its natural gas. The country’s dependence on Russian gas exports makes it vulnerable to political blackmail from the Kremlin, and it crucially affects Ukrainian economic and foreign policy. After the occupation of Crimea, Ukraine sought closer ties with the United States and the European Union. Ukraine is a partner in the EU INOGATE energy programme, and working on four key aspects: supporting sustainable energy development, attracting investment for energy projects, convergence of Member State energy markets on the basis of internal energy market and enhancement of energy security.

State of relations between Ukraine and EU

Relations between the EU and Ukraine have known ups and downs, but they’ve been intensifying ever since the rising preponderance of Russian military aggression. Ukraine is considered a priority partner for the EU within the Eastern Partnership and the European Neighbourhood Policy. The DCFTA Association Agreement and the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area had been initiated in 2012, but in 2013 the preparation was suspended by pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych.

This decision sparked the Euromaidan protests and resulted in a unanimous vote by parliament to remove Yanukovych from power in 2014. After that, the first part of the association agreement was signed on 21 March 2014 by the new prime minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, while the economic part of the deal was signed on 27 June 2014 by new President Petro Poroshenko. From 1 September 2017, Ukrainian citizens have been granted visa-free travel to the Schengen Area for up to 90 days.

The Road Ahead

The ongoing Russian military occupation of the Oblasts of Donestk and Lugansk, as well as Crimea, place important obstacles on Ukraine’s path towards Euro-Atlantic integration. Neither of these occupations are recognised by the United Nations, NATO or the EU, and there is little doubt that they are absolutely incompatible with international law. Nevertheless, de facto these three territories are not currently under Kyiv’s control. From December 2015, the entire region of Crimea has been linked with the Russian power grid, and Crimeans have been voting in Russian elections after the occupation.

Ukraine’s new president Zelens’kyj has triumphed in the 2019 presidential elections with an overwhelming majority (70% in the second round against Poroshenko), but the appeal of his platform has so far been determined by its vagueness. His campaign has been focused on “goals” which almost everyone could agree on, like the fight against corruption, but with a complete lack of specific proposals. This attitude led to a great uncertainty about the new Ukrainian leadership and the choices it will make – among other things, one would be pressed to determine whether the new president is pro-Russian or pro-European. He has repeatedly expressed his willingness to meet with Vladimir Putin in order to solve “the problem of the Donbass”, but it is impossible to understand what this means or when it is supposed to happen, since the Kremlin will consider a meeting only after the “normalisation” of the relations with Ukraine.

The situation is further complicated by the political climate in the Oblasts of Donetsk and Lugansk, which are not part of the pro-Russian autonomous “republics” and are currently under Russian occupation, but did not boycott the elections. Yuriy Boyko, Yanukovych’s former Minister of Fuel and Energy and an outspoken supporter of Moscow, has emerged as the frontrunner candidate from those two Oblasts. Ukraine is a country hampered by deep internal divisions, and prospects for their resolution are currently unclear.

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Since the birth of the Coal and Steel Community in 1952, the European project has grown from a meagre 6 founders to its current 28 members through six distinct enlargement waves. Now, the European Union seems to be ready for a seventh wave – this time incorporating the Western Balkans within the bloc. But how does a country go about joining the EU, exactly? It is necessary to meet determinate criteria before even being considered as a potential candidate member. For example, countries must be ‘European‘, something which has proven of difficult interpretation in the past. When Morocco applied, the EU turned it down on the basis that it was not a European country, but only a few years later Cyprus’ application was accepted – even though the island is technically in Asia. Nowadays, it is down to a purely political decision on a holistic basis.

European countries which wish to apply for membership also have to show that they fulfil the so-called Copenhagen criteria. This requires potential candidate countries to demonstrate respect of democracy and fundamental freedoms, the existence of a functioning market economy, and the intent to accept the obligations formed by EU membership. It is only once the Copenhagen criteria are fulfilled that the accession negotiations can finally begin. These negotiations involve the complicated process of adapting the candidate country’s legislation to the EU’s acquis communautaire, the corpus of legislation of the Union.

There are currently five countries which have the official status of candidate countries: Albania, Montenegro, Northern Macedonia (FYROM), Serbia, and Turkey. The European Commission moreover recognises two additional potential candidate countries, which are not ready to start negotiating yet but will probably be in the near future: Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Each of these countries has a unique relationship with the EU, and their negotiating processes has been very different due to the different internal mechanisms. This series will attempt to track the specificities of each of them and what those means for the future of their enlargement negotiations. In this seventh and last instalment, we will look at Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Geography and Culture of Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia and Herzegovina is located in the heart of the Western Balkans, between Serbia, Montenegro and Croatia. It spans across 51,129 sq. km. and has a population of 3,511,372 citizens.

Bosnian and Herzegovinan culture reflects some elements of the three main ethnic groups (Serbs, Bosniaks and Croats). However, the country has developed its own unique culture with Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman influences.

The Bosnian constitution does not specify an official language. However, Bosnians see the Dayton Agreement for Peace in Bosnia and Herzegovina as a de facto recognition of three languages. The Agreement originates from the country’s independence from Yugoslavia and it was written in Bosnian, Croatian, English, and Serbian. In a census from 2013, 52.86% of the population considered their mother tongue to be Bosnian, 30.76% Serbian, 14.6% Croatian and 1.57% another language.

According to the 1992 European Charter for Regional or Minority Languages, Bosnia and Herzegovina recognises many minority languages. These include Albanian, Czech, German, Italian, Hungarian, Montenegrin, Macedonian, Polish, Romani, Romanian, Rusyn, Slovak, Slovene, Turkish, Ukrainian and Jewish.

Bosnia’s German minority is a reminder of the country’s Austro-Hungarian heritage. This group settled in the Donauschwaben after the Habsburg monarchy claimed the Balkans from the Ottoman Empire. Ottoman heritage has closer links with the Bosniaks group and, therefore with the central part of the country and older districts of cities like Sarajevo and Mostar.

Food and Leisure

This cultural mix is also visible in Bosnian cuisine. It is very rich in spices, used in very small quantities. Byrek, pilaf, cévapi and typical Turkish desserts clearly come from the Ottoman tradition, but goulash is also very traditional. A sauce called pavlaka links Bosnian cuisine with the Slavic Balkan traditions.

Another important element of Bosnian culture is sport. Football is the most popular sport. In the pre-independence era, the teams of Sarajevo and the Željezničar both won the Yugoslavian Championships title. However, the most decorated national teams are the chess team and the wheelchair volleyball team. The chess team won the European Championships in 1999, 2000 and 2001. Meanwhile, the wheelchair volleyball team has won several World and European titles and two Paralympic Gold medals in 2004 and 2012.

Society and Religion

Bosnian and Herzegovinian society includes three main ethnic “constituent peoples.” These are Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats. According to a 2013 census published by the Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bosniaks constitute 50.11% of the population, Serbs 30.78% and Croats 15.43%. Many other minorities, including Jews and Roma, are present.

The three groups have strong links with religious faith. 51% of people identify as Muslim, 31% as Serbian Orthodox and 15% as Catholic. The Stari Grad district in Sarajevo is another symbol of Bosnia’s multi-faith society.

A geographical divide in Bosnia and Herzegovina is also visible. Brilliant examples of Ottoman Bosnian architecture characterise Eastern Bosnia. Meanwhile, the Habsburgs built much of western Bosnia where many Austrian-Hungarian buildings can be seen. The capital, Sarajevo, has a similar divide. More than 66% of the old quarter’s population is Bosniak, while more than 66% of the newer southern district’s population comprises of Serbs.

The Bridge of Mostar is a symbol of military division which no one wants to come back. It was built during the Ottoman era and divided the Bosniak and Croats populations. These people lived peacefully together until the Bosnian War of the 1990s. The bridge was destroyed in 1993. However, it has been rebuilt as a symbol of dialogue and of the peaceful coexistence of different people and religions.

Economic Context

Tito’s regime promoted several metal industries in Bosnia.  In the 1970s and 1980s, these industries helped to develop a strong industrial export-oriented economy. The agriculture sector also focused on exportation. During the war in the 1990s, however, GDP fell by 60%. The devastation of infrastructure led to economic collapse.

The unemployment rate is now about 36% and the entire economy may need to be rethought. However, in recent years the Bosnian and Herzegovinian economy has shown some progress. Inflation is very low, at 1.8% at the end of 2018, although it was 0.3% in January 2018. Additionally, GDP has grown by 10% in recent years. Exports also increased by 17% in 2017.

Bosnian exports consist primarily of car seats, processed wood, aluminium and furniture. This demonstrates good development in the manufacturing industry which was so important before the war. Moreover, in 2017 Bosnia and Herzegovina ranked 3^rd in the world for the number of new jobs created by foreign investment.

State of Talks

Bosnia and Herzegovina certainly has the potential to improve its economy and social context. This is especially true if the glorious past of its metal industry is considered. However, the current environmental situation is markedly different from the Yugoslavian one. This is a huge difference which Bosnia and Herzegovina must face.

Another worrying phenomenon is the rural communities of Wahhabist foreign fighters. They came to Bosnia as the El Mudžahid Brigade during the war. This issue has been discussed at length in relation to the village of Gornja Maoca. The German government offered increased assistance to Bosnia to overcome this issue. This offer also comes with the possibility of granting visa-free movement to Bosnian citizens.

The Road Ahead

Local governments and EU institutions have long stated that the accession of Bosnia and Herzegovina to the European Union is their aim. In 2003, the EU defined Bosnia and Herzegovina as a “potential candidate country” for accession. It has taken part in the Stabilisation and Association Process since 2015 after the EU refused to ratify their Stability and Association Accord in 2011. Bosnia formally applied for EU membership in February 2016.

The Council received the accession questionnaire and a follow-up in June 2018. However, no chapter has been opened and the results of a first assessment are not yet available. The latest reports show some progress, but the Council still need to verify the conditions of a first assessment.

The road is long for Bosnia. However, the accession of other Balkan countries can surely give Bosnia and Herzegovina an economic and social boost and the hope that they can join.

The post The Next Enlargement Wave: Bosnia and Herzegovina Lags Far Behind appeared first on My Country? Europe..

Since the birth of the Coal and Steel Community in 1952, the European project has grown from a meagre 6 founders to its current 28 members through six distinct enlargement waves. Now, the European Union seems to be ready for a seventh wave – this time incorporating the Western Balkans within the bloc. But how does a country go about joining the EU, exactly? It is necessary to meet determinate criteria before even being considered as a potential candidate member. For example, countries must be ‘European‘, something which has proven of difficult interpretation in the past. When Morocco applied, the EU turned it down on the basis that it was not a European country, but only a few years later Cyprus’ application was accepted – even though the island is technically in Asia. Nowadays, it is down to a purely political decision on a holistic basis.

European countries which wish to apply for membership also have to show that they fulfill the so-called Copenhagen criteria. This requires potential candidate countries to demonstrate respect of democracy and fundamental freedoms, the existence of a functioning market economy, and the intent to accept the obligations formed by EU membership. It is only once the Copenhagen criteria are fulfilled that the accession negotiations can finally begin. These negotiations involve the complicated process of adapting the candidate country’s legislation to the EU’s acquis communautaire, the corpus of legislation of the Union.

There are currently five countries which have the official status of candidate countries: Albania, Montenegro, Northern Macedonia (FYROM), Serbia, and Turkey. The European Commission moreover recognises two additional potential candidate countries, which are not ready to start negotiating yet but will probably be in the near future: Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Each of these countries has a unique relationship with the EU, and their negotiating processes has been very different due to the different internal mechanisms. This series will attempt to track the specificities of each of them and what those means for the future of their enlargement negotiations. Today, we shall look at Kosovo’s progress.

Geography and Culture of Kosovo   

Kosovo is located in the centre of the Western Balkans, in between Albania, Serbia, Northern Macedonia (FYROM) and Montenegro. It spans across 10,908 sq. km. and has a population of just over two million citizens. Not all countries have accepted its unilateral declaration of independence from Serbia back in 2008. In fact, only 116 countries recognise its existence as a sovereign nation.

Amongst European states, the ones which do not recognise the breakaway region, apart from Serbia itself, are: Spain, Greece, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Slovakia, Belarus, Cyprus, Moldova, Romania, Ukraine, and Russia. In addition, also China, India, Mexico and many African and Latin American countries have also refused to recognise it as independent.

A vast majority of the Kosovar population is made up of Gheg Albanians. The Ghegs are one of the two major ethnic sub-groups in Albania, where they mostly inhabit the mountainous north. Their presence in Kosovo means that Albanian, and specifically its Gheg variant, is spoken by 94.5% of the population. The Serbian language also holds official status at the national level, with Bosnian, Turkish, and Roma being officially recognised in some municipalities.

The country’s capital, Pristina, is a prime example of Yugoslav-era socialist architecture, unlike other major cities, like Prizren, which are dominated by Ottoman styles. Mosques and hamams are common throughout the country, and so are Orthodox monasteries. Over the past few years, Pristina has been trying to rebrand itself, and it has become an important fashion design hub for Albanian-speaking territories.

Kosovar cuisine reflects the complicated history of the region, with Albanian and Serbian dishes intermingling with Turkish desserts, such as baklava, lokum and halva. These are a staple of religious holidays like Christmas, Easter, and Ramadan. Sheep salami, called suxhuk, is another common Kosovar delicacy of Turkish origin. Kosovo’s national dish is undoubtedly flia, a baked pancake composed of multiple crepe-style layers, filled with cheese, meat and potatoes. Turkish coffee is very popular in Kosovo, although Albanian-style mountain tea and black tea are also common.

Sports play a significant role in Kosovar society, and have served as a vehicle for celebration of the breakaway region’s independence. The Olympic Committee of Kosovo became a full member of the International Olympic Committee in 2014. The national team participated at the 2015 European Games in Azerbaijan, and the 2016 Summer Olympics in Brazil, with judoka Mailinda Kelmendi winning the gold medal in judo. Football, basketball, and boxing are also popular, and Kosovo is home to several talented football players, like Lorik Cana, who played with Olympique de Marseille, Sunderland, and the Albanian national team, among others.

Society and Religion

Obtaining consistent and reliable figures on Kosovo’s ethnic composition is complicated, as several municipalities have boycotted official censuses. Nevertheless, it’s clear that Albanians make up a vast majority of the country’s population, reaching 92.9% in the official census of 2011. The Bosnian minority comes a very distant second at 1.7%, and is mostly concentrated in the south. Serbs, on the contrary, are concentrated in North Kosovo, as well as in some eastern municipalities. In the 2011 census, they accounted for 1.6% of Kosovo’s population, but North Kosovo did not participate in that census, so the number is de facto higher. Turks are approximately 1.1% of the population, and are concentrated above all in the district of Prizren).

Relations between Albanians and Serbs have always been difficult. The Serbian minority, currently concentrated in North Kosovo, as well as in the east, is represented by its own party, which has become a regular fixture in the Parliament of Kosovo. At time of writing, this party is also a member of the governing coalition. Relations between ethnic minorities also impact diplomatic relations between Kosovo and its neighbours: slights, diplomatic incidents and provocations occur often.

While many Gheg areas are Catholic, Islam is the most practiced religion in Kosovo, with 95% of the population self-identifying as Muslim. Relations between the Albanian Muslim and Catholic communities are good, whereas the Serbian Orthodox community is relatively isolated. Kosovars define their identity more along linguistic lines than religious ones. In fact, Kosovar society is firmly secular, ranking first in southern Europe and ninth worldwide for tolerance towards different faiths and atheism.

Kosovo is going through a democratic boom, with its population having grown by 460% between 1921 and 2003. This growth continues to this day: Albanians in Kosovo have the fastest growth rate of any other population in Europe. The Serbian population, on the other hand, has shrunk, especially after many Serbs relocated to neighbouring Serbia following the ethnic strife of 1999. As a result of these, and other factors, Kosovo is the youngest country in Europe. Almost half of its population is constituted by under 25.

Economic context          

Given the troubled history of the region, it’s no surprise that the Kosovar economy is still in transition. War, political instability, and economic upheavals have created a negative economic environment at the turn of the millennium. Nevertheless, since the independence declaration of 2008, Kosovo’s economy has grown by an average of 5% every year. To maintain this growth, Kosovo is highly dependent on capital flowing in from abroad, typically in the form of foreign-direct-investment, or remittances from the Albanian Diaspora.

Kosovo also has a curious history when it comes to its currency. In the aftermath of the conflict with Serbia, the United Nations mandate administering Kosovo never withdrew the Yugoslav Dinar from circulation. The currency, however, was already ailing by then, and Kosovars preferred using US Dollars, Swiss Francs and German Marks as hard currency. All three were given official status in 1999, with the Mark quickly becoming the prominent currency in the region. In 2002, Kosovo adopted the Euro as its official currency. While not a member of the Eurozone, and thus minting no coin of its own, the breakaway region conducted the switch with the cooperation of the European Central Bank.

Kosovo has signed free trade agreements with Albania, North Macedonia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Croatia. Turkey, Italy, Germany, and Switzerland are prominent commercial partners, with the latter hosting many of the Kosovars who fled abroad during the war. The country is also part of CEFTA, a free trade area comprising non-EU European countries. The wine industry is very successful and a prime export candidate: millions of litres of wine (above all Pinot noir, Merlot and Chardonnay) are produced around Orahovac every year. Agriculture contributes almost 35% of the national GDP. Additionally, Kosovo has large reserves of zinc, silver, nickel, zinc, lead, and bauxite. It has the 3^rd largest lignite reserve in Europe, the 5^th largest in the world.

Tourism has grown to become one of the most prominent economic activities in Kosovo, mostly thanks to the country’s breath-taking landscapes, which have been enthusiastically described by many renowned international outlets, like The New York Times and The Guardian. In order to preserve these landscapes, however, further action is needed on sustainability, and the adoption of EU environmental standards.

The country’s young population faces considerable hardships in obtaining the skills demanded by employers, not least because of how difficult it is for Kosovar students to get visas. Due to the uncertain diplomatic status of Kosovo, these visa requests are often denied, preventing participation in internships and other programmes abroad. This negatively affects the research sector, as well as universities.

State of talks                   

In 2013, Kosovo and Serbia signed the Brussels Agreement, a treaty seeking to normalise their relations, allowing both countries to proceed on the path of European integration. The agreement commits both “not to block or encourage others to block the other side’s progress in the respective EU paths”. Days after the agreement was ratified, the European Commission authorised the negotiation of a Stabilisation and Association Agreement between the EU and Kosovo, as well as membership negotiations with Serbia.

The Stabilisation and Association Agreement was signed on 27 October 2015, and it was the first such agreement to be signed after the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty. Since the latter established legal personality for the whole Union, this meant that the EU could sign the agreement with Kosovo as a legal entity, without requiring ratification by each Member State. Independence is not required for such an agreement, allowing the EU to side-step the Serbian-Kosovar territorial dispute. Nevertheless, since five Member States do not recognise Kosovo, the Commission had to issue a directive saying that the agreement “will not signify that the EU or any of the countries recognise Kosovo as a state”. The agreement went into force on 1 April 2016.

The latest reports show that, for all its progress, Kosovo still needs to work on several, critical issues. While elections are generally competitive and well-administered, intimidation against candidates and journalists remains common. Even more seriously, the implementation of human rights strategies, legislation against corruption, and measures against organised crime is fatally weakened by a chronic shortage of funds, and limited support from the government. The ruling coalition has struggled to implement EU related reforms, and parliament remains rowdy, with the proceedings hampered by obstructionism and the use of tear gas.

Kosovo is moderately prepared in other areas, such as free movement, industrial policies, public procurement and the business environment. Its environmental policies, however, lag far behind EU standards, and the situation in North Kosovo represents a significant obstacle. The four Serbian-majority municipalities experience severe problems with crime and corruption, and their relationship with central authorities is frayed, although the EU has successfully fostered some institutional dialogue in recent years. Plans for a comprehensive census of the area are still under development.

In economic terms, Kosovo’s rapid growth, the government’s fiscal discipline, and the expanding business environment bode well for its chances of future accession. Nevertheless, the country is barely in the early stages of creating a functioning market economy, and significant obstacles remain: the informal economy is still widespread, there has been little progress in education, and the railways and energy sector are still held back by significant infrastructural gaps.

The Road Ahead     

The future of Kosovo in the EU will depend first of all on its commitment to normalising relations with Serbia, and winning recognition by all Member States. The Brussels Agreement is an exceptional document in the long process of bringing peace to the Balkans, but it needs to be upheld through the years in order to gain legitimacy.

Serbia is not the only neighbour playing a role in Kosovo’s potential EU accession. Albania is also a factor, with some political parties on both sides of the border coveting unity and the establishment of a greater Albania. In the event of an attempted unification referendum, Kosovo could well suffer a dramatic setback in its path towards EU membership.

Aside from diplomatic and domestic considerations, border controls are also an immediate concern. Visa liberalisation is a priority to bolstering Kosovo’s education and labour market, but more pressingly, Pristina needs progress in ensuring the security of its borders, now hat numerous foreign fighters who fought for the Islamic State in Syria are making their way back to the Balkans.

There is no doubt that Kosovo’s continued engagement in the Stabilisation and Association Agreement is a good sign, and the progress made by the breakaway region is tangible. There can be no illusion, however, on the fact that Kosovo is very much in its early stages on the road to accession. Moreover, the final outcome will equally be determined by its internal development, and by its ability to find a lasting settlement with its Balkan neighbours.

The post The Next Enlargement Wave: Kosovo Still in Its Early Accession Stage appeared first on My Country? Europe..

Since the birth of the Coal and Steel Community in 1957, the European project has grown from a meagre 6 founders to its current 28 members through six distinct enlargement waves. Now, the European Union seems to be ready for a seventh wave – this time incorporating the Western Balkans within the bloc. But how does a country go about joining the EU, exactly? It is necessary to meet determinate criteria before even being considered as a potential candidate member. For example, countries must be ‘European‘, something which has proven of difficult interpretation in the past. When Morocco applied, the EU turned it down on the basis that it was not a European country, but only a few years later Cyprus’ application was accepted – even though the island is technically in Asia. Nowadays, it is down to a purely political decision on a holistic basis.

European countries which wish to apply for membership also have to show that they fulfill the so-called Copenhagen criteria. This requires potential candidate countries to demonstrate respect of democracy and fundamental freedoms, the existence of a functioning market economy, and the intent to accept the obligations formed by EU membership. It is only once the Copenhagen criteria are fulfilled that the accession negotiations can finally begin. These negotiations involve the complicated process of adapting the candidate country’s legislation to the EU’s acquis communautaire, the corpus of legislation of the Union.

There are currently five countries which have the official status of candidate countries: Albania, Montenegro, Northern Macedonia (FYROM), Serbia, and Turkey. The European Commission moreover recognises two additional potential candidate countries, which are not ready to start negotiating yet but will probably be in the near future: Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Each of these countries has a unique relationship with the EU, and their negotiating processes has been very different due to the different internal mechanisms. This series will attempt to track the specificities of each of them and what those means for the future of their enlargement negotiations. After looking at Albania and Montenegro, this installment will focus on the Republic of Serbia.

Geography and Culture of Serbia

Serbia is located in the heart of the Balkans, nestled in between Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Northern Macedonia (FYROM), Kosovo, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Croatia. It spans across 88.361 sq. km. and has a population of more than 7 million citizens. Due to its geographical position and its history, Serbian culture is a mix of Ottoman, Byzantine and Austrian-Hungarian influences.This can be clearly viewed in the wide variety of typical dishes which can be found here. Serbian cuisine includes elements of different cultures like sauerkraut, moussaka, rakija, handmade beer, and turkish coffee.

Serbian is an official language in Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Kosovo, while it is recognized as a minority language in Hungary, Slovakia, Croatia, Northern Macedonia (FYROM), and Romania. It is the only language with a current digraphia including Cyrillic and Latin alphabets, which means that the two are used interchangeably throughout the country. Serbian Cyrillic alphabet was created in 1814 by Vuk Karadžić. Serbia is also very successful in many sports, above all basketball, volleyball, and tennis whose best exponent is Novak Djoković.

Society and Religion

Excluding Kosovo, even though its sovereignty is not recognised by Serbia, the most numerous minorities in the country are Hungarians, Roma, and Bosniaks. These are mainly concentrated in Vojvodina, where Serbians make up only 70% of the population.

According to the Constitution, Serbia is a secular country with religious freedom. The Orthodox Church is the most common religious organisation in the country. Over 84% of the population identifies as Orthodox, including most ethnic Serbians, Montenegrins, Romanians, Macedonians, Bulgarians, and Vlachs. The Roman Catholic Church is spread above all in the region of Vojvodina, while Muslims are primarily present in Raška’s district and among the Bosniaks.

Economic context

The Serbian economy is probably the most successful one in the Western Balkans. It is considered a service-based upper-middle income economy and the tertiary sector is definitely the most important one. In fact, it accounts for two thirds of the total GDP. Other strong sectors are automotive industry, energy, and mining (above all in the south). The export is sustained by iron and steel factories, agriculture, weapons and ammunition, and cars. Its main trading partners are Russia, China, Germany, and Italy together with the other Balkan countries.

The nominal GDP in 2017 amounted $5,599 per capita and $39.366 billion generally. Nominal GDP of other candidate countries like Albania and Northern Macedonia amounted $13 and $11 billion respectively, while the Croatian one amounted $54,840. This comparison is emblematic of the state of the Serbian economy. The Government’s reform program focused on financial stability and living standards. Economic growth is forecast to increase to 3.5% in 2018 (the projection amounted to 3%). Above all the growth of 26.4% of the construction sector was definitely encouraging. Regarding the labor market, the unemployment rate declined from 13.5% in 2017 to 11.9% in 2018 and the average salaries rose by 4.2% in real terms in the first half of 2018.

State of talks and accession chapters

The process to Serbia becoming an official candidate State to join the EU has been very troubled, due to a sequence of unfortunately timed political crises involving first Montenegro and then Kosovo. Technically, the Serbian enlargement project started with the negotiations for a Stabilisation and Association Agreement in 2005, while the country was still federated with Montenegro. At the time, separate technical negotiations were conducted regarding issues of sub-state organizational competency between the two entities in the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. However, not that long after Montenegro held a referendum and achieved independence, putting a halt to that particular avenue of conjoined accession. Serbia soon resumed its bid alone in 2007, with negotiations for the agreement being concluded a mere few months later, in April 2008.

This coincided with the declaration of independence of Kosovo, leading to a temporary political crisis within the Serbian government that distracted from the EU accession goals, especially as most Member States quickly recognised the region as an independent country. Moreover, the Netherlands and Belgium refused to sign the Association Agreement, due to Serbia not fully cooperating with the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia. Because of the EU’s unanimity policy in the area of enlargement, these two vetoes effectively blocked the whole Stabilisation Agreement from entering into effect. The vetoes would only be removed in 2013.

Not deterred, Serbia applied for EU membership in 2009 and at the same time implemented the Stabilisation and Association Agreement unilaterally. It would however have to wait until 2012 before the EU accepted it as an official candidate country. From that moment, it moved swiftly through the acquis chapters. As of now, out of a total of 35 negotiation chapters, 14 chapters have now been opened for negotiations – of which 2 chapters have already been provisionally closed. The latest reports show much improvement in meeting the requirements, especially in the areas of Environment and Agriculture. However, many issues still remain critical and progress is needed in the areas of Financial & Budgetary Provisions.

The Road Ahead

One of the most pressing issue for the future of EU-Serbian relations is the rapidly-decreasing support for accession. From a 2017 survey, in fact, only 51.2% of the population was in favour of joining the EU, 36.3% were against and 12.5% undecided. In 2009, right after the Stabilisation Agreement unilaterally entered into effect and the Serbian government submitted an official request to become a candidate country, support for accession was arond 71%. Other than a generic sense of discouragement and resentment due to the long waiting times of the negotiations, there have been two main political devolopments which have contributed to this dwindling: one related to EU-Kosovo relations and the other to Serbia-Russia relations.

It is impossible to consider Serbian accession to the European Union independently of the Kosovo situation. Even though the Belgrade government made huge progress in the dialogue with Prishtina, public opinion about this issue is still very conflicted. As it stands, there doesn’t seem to be any significant opening towards official recognition of the breakaway region. From the same 2017 survey, another question asked: “if recognizing the independence of Kosovo were a condition of joining the EU, do you think that condition should be accepted?“. Only 12.1% answered yes, 70.6% no and 17.3% were undecided.

Another problem – equally if not more pressing, but often forgotten – arises from the strong relationship between Serbia and Russia. Even though the current government is trying to adopt a balanced approach and mediating between Moscow and Brussels, Russia still remains the main political partner of Serbia. Moreover, in 2015, Serbia started negotiations for a free trade agreement with the Russia-headed Eurasian Economic Union, strengthening its ties with the east to the detriment of its relations with the west. This can contrast with the interests and the defensive expectations of eastern EU countries like the Baltics, Poland, Finland, and Sweden. As a result, it is probable that the EU will require a political and economic detatchment from Russia before the negotiations are allowed to progress significantly – something Serbia may not be ready to offer.

The post The Next Enlargement Wave: Serbia caught between Russia and Europe appeared first on My Country? Europe..

Since the birth of the Coal and Steel Community in 1957, the European project has grown from a meagre 6 founders to its current 28 members through six distinct enlargement waves. Now, the European Union seems to be ready for a seventh wave – this time incorporating the Western Balkans within the bloc. But how does a country go about joining the EU, exactly? It is necessary to meet determinate criteria before even being considered as a potential candidate member. For example, countries must be ‘European‘, something which has proven of difficult interpretation in the past. When Morocco applied, the EU turned it down on the basis that it was not a European country, but only a few years later Cyprus’ application was accepted – even though the island is technically in Asia. Nowadays, it is down to a purely political decision on a holistic basis.

European countries which wish to apply for membership also have to show that they fulfill the so-called Copenhagen criteria. This requires potential candidate countries to demonstrate respect of democracy and fundamental freedoms, the existence of a functioning market economy, and the intent to accept the obligations formed by EU membership. It is only once the Copenhagen criteria are fulfilled that the accession negotiations can finally begin. These negotiations involve the complicated process of adapting the candidate country’s legislation to the EU’s acquis communautaire, the corpus of legislation of the Union.

There are currently five countries which have the official status of candidate countries: Albania, Montenegro, Northern Macedonia (FYROM), Serbia, and Turkey. The European Commission moreover recognises two additional potential candidate countries, which are not ready to start negotiating yet but will probably be in the near future: Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Each of these countries has a unique relationship with the EU, and their negotiating processes has been very different due to the different internal mechanisms. This series will attempt to track the specificities of each of them and what those means for the future of their enlargement negotiations. After looking at Albania, this installment will focus on the Republic of Montenegro.

Geography and Culture of Montenegro

Located in south-eastern Europe, Montenegro spans across 13,812 sq. km. With a population of 620,145 citizens, it is one of the least populated countries in Europe. Similarly to the situation in many other ex-Yugoslav Republics, its recent history has helped it configure as a multi-ethnic state whose population includes Montenegrins, Serbs, Bosniaks, Croats and Albanians. Conforming to how the population expresses its identity and ethnic affiliation, the number of “Montenegrins” and “Serbs” can be different according to the census. However, estimates put the ethnically Serbian population of Montenegro at approximately 28% of the total population, making it the second largest ethnicity in the country. Albanian and Bosniaks communities are located above all along the borders with Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina. In addition to Montenegrin, which is the official language, Serbian, Bosnian, Croatian and Albanian are all recognised in official use.

Society and Religion

The majority of Montenegrins follows Serbian Orthodox Christianity and they are members of the Serbian Orthodox Church. Over the centuries, Montenegro has created its own form of harmony between the Christian and Muslim population in the country. During the Balkan Wars, Montenegro remained stable and no conflicts between the Orthodox and the Muslim communities (above all Bosniaks and Albanians) took place. Muslim population accounts now for the 19% of the population. In 2012, a protocol was introduced that recognised Islam as an official religion, permitted to the Muslim women to wear headscarves in public institutions. and ensured halal foods to be served in all social facilities.

Politics in Montenegro

Ever since the introduction of a multi-party system in the 1990s in the region, Montenegro has been ruled continuously by the Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro, which – unlike what the name would suggest – is not a left-wing party. While it has historical ties with communism and communist ideals, it has since evolved in a centre to centre-right catch-all party following a populist rhetoric. It has been the driving force to driving the country into NATO and to pushing forward EU accession negotiations.

It is important to recognise, in analysing EU-Montenegro relations, just how young of an independent country it is and how immature its institutions still are. On the 21st May 2006, 55.5% of the eligible voters voted in favor of independence from Serbia, thus dismantling the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro which had existed until then and was the last vestige of Yugoslavia. The northern districts, those populated mainly by ethnic Serbs, voted mainly for the unionist propose, while the Albanian-majority and the southern area voted for the independence. Following the results of the referendum, the government of Serbia declared itself the legal successor of the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro. Both Serbia and the major international actors, amongst which the European Union, the United States, the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China, respected the referendum results.

Today, while it is one of the Western Balkan countries with the best rule of law and democratic status, the political situation of the country remains one of tensions and insecurity. Following the 2016 national elections – which resulted in a continuation of the Democratic Party of Socialists’ rule – both international observers and opposition parties criticised the climate of fear and violence which had reigned during election day. The lack of free and democratic elections led many of the non-government parties to organise a boycott of the parliamentary sessions, refusing to participate to any activity attended also the ruling party. In December 2017, two of the seven opposition parties decided to end the boycott and return to Parliament, followed by another three after the May 2018 local elections. Today, the Democratic Montenegro (DCG) and United Reform Action (URA) still remain in a boycott with the same demands to improve the electoral laws and democracy in the country.

Economic context

The Montenegrin economy has been making huge progress in the last few years. Montenegro has the most stable economy in the Western Balkans. In fact, even after the financial crisis of 2008, the economy of Montenegro suffered less than other Western Balkan countries remaining actually stable in all the following years, as it could be noticed by the GDP trend along the years. Poverty is in progressive decline from its peak of 19.6% in 2012 to the 12.8% in 2016. In 2017, it amounts to 11.5%. Also, the general government deficit fell from 8% in 2015 to 4% in 2016. It is expected to expand to 6% in 2018 and them to decline again to 4% in 2019.

The economy is forecast to grow by an average of 2.8% in 2017-2019 due to a huge plan of public investments and to personal consumption. The biggest risk is given by the external imbalances which are getting wider, reaching 21% of the GDP. This risks making the country’s economy more vulnerable to external shocks.

State of talks and accession chapters

Montenegro has demonstrated an unparalleled enthusiasm for joining the EU, both in terms of public and governmental support. Technically, its negotiations started in 2005, while the country was still federated with Serbia. At the time, separate technical negotiations were conducted regarding issues of sub-state organizational competency. The referendum and subsequent independence put a halt to that particular avenue of accession, but Montenegro soon resumed its bid alone. A mandate for direct negotiations with Montenegro was established in July 2006, just a few days after the results of the referendum. Direct negotiations were initiated on 26 September 2006 and concluded officially in 2007, with the signing of a Stabilisation and Association Agreement.

Currently, it is the candidate country most presumed to be the next Member State. The latest reports show much improvement in meeting the acquis requirements. As of today, there are currently two chapters waiting to be opened, twenty-eight chapters open, and five chapters that have been provisionally closed, including two chapters in which there is nothing to adopt. Only two areas remain critical and in need of severe progress, those of Fisheries and Financial and Budgetary Provisions.

The Road Ahead

There aren’t many any crucial issue for Montenegro to join EU. All the European countries recognise Montenegro as a sovereign state, including Serbia, and in 2017 the country has finally obtained the full membership in NATO. Moreover, Montenegro borders with Croatia to the Western side giving continuity to the territorial integrity of EU. Its progress in the acquis chapters has continued unbidden, and it doesn’t seem likely that it will slow down any time soon.

What remains to be negotiated upon is the future on the euro currency in the country. In 2002, Montenegro unilaterally adopted the euro as official currency, an introduction which the EU criticised but did not move to stop legally. Before that, as a constituent republic of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia – and later of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia – the Yugoslav dinar was the official currency in the country. In 1999, the government unilaterally introduced the Deutsche Mark as a co-official currency with the dinar, and in 2001 it became the only legal tender in the country, only for a short while before being phased out in favour of the euro.

The European Commission and the European Central Bank have repeatedly voiced their discontent over this unilateral use of the euro, as this is incompatible with the Treaties of the EU. Moreover, the EU insists on strict adherence to convergence criteria (such as spending at least 2 years in the ERMII system) which are not negotiable before euro adoption. This has proven to be a sticking issue for Montenegro’s bid to join the EU. Diplomats have suggested that it’s unlikely Montenegro will be forced to withdraw the euro from circulation in their country just to join it again after joining the EU, however the exact provisions in relation to this matter will have to be negotiated expressly in the final agreement.

The post The Next Enlargement Wave: Montenegro Set to Be the Next One In appeared first on My Country? Europe..

Since the birth of the Coal and Steel Community in 1957, the European project has grown from a meagre 6 founders to its current 28 members through six distinct enlargement waves. Now, the European Union seems to be ready for a seventh wave – this time incorporating the Western Balkans within the bloc. But how does a country go about joining the EU, exactly? It is necessary to meet determinate criteria before even being considered as a potential candidate member. For example, countries must be ‘European‘, something which has proven of difficult interpretation in the past. When Morocco applied, the EU turned it down on the basis that it was not a European country, but only a few years later Cyprus’ application was accepted – even though the island is technically in Asia. Nowadays, it is down to a purely political decision on a holistic basis.

European countries which wish to apply for membership also have to show that they fulfill the so-called Copenhagen criteria. This requires potential candidate countries to demonstrate respect of democracy and fundamental freedoms, the existence of a functioning market economy, and the intent to accept the obligations formed by EU membership. It is only once the Copenhagen criteria are fulfilled that the accession negotiations can finally begin. These negotiations involve the complicated process of adapting the candidate country’s legislation to the EU’s acquis communautaire, the corpus of legislation of the Union.

There are currently five countries which have the official status of candidate countries: Albania, Montenegro, Northern Macedonia (FYROM), Serbia, and Turkey. The European Commission moreover recognises two additional potential candidate countries, which are not ready to start negotiating yet but will probably be in the near future: Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Each of these countries has a unique relationship with the EU, and their negotiating processes has been very different due to the different internal mechanisms. This series will attempt to track the specificities of each of them and what those means for the future of their enlargement negotiations.

Geography and Culture of Albania

From its position in south-eastern Europe, Albania spans across 28,748 sq. km. and has a population of around three million people. There are two main linguistic and ethnographic groups dominating the country: the southern Tosks and the northern Ghegs. The line separating them has been identified approximately at the Shkumbin River, which completely divides Albania from east to west. Although ethno-linguistically different, both sides take pride in indisputable loyalty to Albania and to the values of Albanian independence.

The Tosk dialect group is spoken not only in Albania, but also by the ethnic Albanian population in Greece, in southwestern Northern Macedonia and by the arbëreshë in Southern Italy. The Tosks are also linked with a more Southern Mediterranean culture. In particular, the music and the food are very similar to the Greek and Southern Italy ones. On the other hand, Gheg is also spoken by the Albanians of Kosovo, Montenegro, Croatia and northwestern Northern Macedonia. It is usually linked with more traditional Balkan lifestyles and customs.

Society and Religion

Chief among the common values uniting Albania is religious tolerance. This is a famous feature of the country, where Catholics, Muslims and Orthodox Christians have long enjoyed peaceful coexistence. For example, Albania was the only country in Europe where the number of Jews increased significantly during the Nazi Holocaust. Its Muslims are very different from those which could be traditionally found in the Middle East. Albania follows Bektashism, a branch of Islam which uses temples called tekke instead of mosques, and has very liberal approaches to alcohol consumption.

From the end of World War II to the Nineties, Albania faced one of the most terrible Communist regimes in Western Europe, which led the country to almost complete isolation from the rest of the world. Following the collapse Enver Hoxha’s regime, many Albanians have taken to leaving the country and settling in Western European countries in hope of a better future. This has given life to what is considered a fully fledged diaspora, of which the exact numbers are not known. Estimates place the number at around 800 thousand, a considerable amount for such a small country.

Nowadays, the country has developed three main parties in its political context: the centre-right Democratic Party, the centre-left Socialist Party, and the centrist Socialist Movement of Integration. As of the last elections, Prime Minister Edi Rama from the Socialist Party has the absolute majority in terms of parliamentary representation, and as such govern without any need of coalition.

Economic context

The Albanian economy has been making huge economic progress since the transition from a socialist planned to a free-market economy. Gone are the days of Albania as the poorest nation in Europe – nowadays it has become a middle-income country where poverty is in continuous decline. Nevertheless, there are several still critical elements highlighted by the global financial crisis. Albania needs to carry out deep structural reforms in order to raise productivity and to improve governance and the public services.

Recently, the Government has proposed a program focused on fiscal sustainability and financial stabilization. According to the World Bank reports, this would help in creating the conditions for rebounding business confidence and domestic demand. Albania’s GDP grew by 3.8% in 2017 above all thanks to private investment and consumption, above all linked with the energy projects of the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline.
Private consumption, on the other hand, was supported by a higher rate of employment and credit. Technically, the fiscal policy involved a reduction of public debt, but this rose – even if slightly – from the 1.8% of GDP in 2016 to 2% in 2017. The unemployment has currently decreased to an average of 13.9%. The poverty rate in 2017 has declined to 32.8% compared to 33.9% of 2016. Economic growth is expected to arrange to 3.6% in 2018 and to 3.5% in 2019-20.

State of talks and accession chapters

Although Albania has technically been a full candidate country since 2014, there have yet to be any opened acquis chapters, as the Council of the EU keeps postponing the start of negotiations. Albania’s journey started 18 years ago, having been recognised as a “potential candidate” in 2000. The country had to wait until 2003 to start the negotiations for a Stabilisation and Association Agreement, which weren’t fully completed before another three years. And that was just the beginning of its path: in 2009, it applied for membership, but had to wait until 2014 and the Thessaloniki European Council just to be recognised as a candidate country.

Although most members of the European Parliament and the Commission have repeatedly stated that Albania is ready to progress, the Council of the EU has so far not been convinced. As of right now, it has no chance of progressing in the negotiations until June 2019, when the Council Ministers will meet again to decide whether to give the green lights to the negotiations. The latest reports show much improvement in meeting the pre-accession requirement, but some aspects still remain critical. Huge progress has been made in the areas of Environment and Climate Change, as well as those of Justice, Freedom and Security. However, its Consumer & Health Protection, Science & Research, Fisheries and Agriculture & Rural Development still remain underdeveloped and a priority to improve upon before negotiations may begin. The last aspect is probably the most critical, and is linked with the lack of communications between the city and the countryside, above all in the north of Albania.

The Road Ahead

The biggest obstacle which Albania will face from other EU Member States comes probably from Greece, which it has several unresolved issues with which stem all the way back to World War II. After the Italian occupation forces in Albania attacked Greece in October 1940, Greece passed a law declaring a state of war between the two countries. This law has yet to be repealed, although in 2016 the two Foreign Ministers stated that they were working towards a formal closure of this long forgotten war.

The consequences of this state of war, however, stem further than the formal conflict itself: the fate of the ethnic Albanians who were exiled from Greece during and after the war is still a hot and controversial topic between the two. The Cham community, a sub-group of Albanians, lived in the western part of the region of Epirus in northwestern Greece (which they call Çamëria and believe to be rightfully Albanian land). During that time, The Cham were accused of collaborating with the German occupation and thus expelled from the country as well as being subject to violence. And that’s not all: the maritime borders between the two have also been subject to much scrutiny and conflict in the past few years, and a resolution doesn’t seem forthcoming.

Another important obstacle for the future of Albania’s negotiation is the state of Kosovo. Prime Minister Edi Rama has repeatedly stated that Albania will only join the EU if it can do so together with Kosovo, but this poses several logistical issues. First and foremost, there are still EU countries which do not recognise the break-away Serbian region. Among them, Spain has had huge problems with regional claims above all in Catalunya (in addition to the historical dispute with the Basque country) during the last year, and has been very reticent in recognising Kosovo.

Moreover, Kosovo still hasn’t achieved the status of candidate country and it doesn’t seem likely that it will obtain it in the near future, so it would be extremely tricky in terms of timing to have the two join together. On the other hand, though, allowing Albania in the EU first would pose difficulties in the management of a possible external border with Kosovo, which both countries have been clamouring to abolish for years now.

While resolutions to these issues don’t seem forthcoming, and while the Council remains reticent to allow Albania to progress, it seems unlikely that the goal of having the Western Balkans join the bloc by 2025 will be met.

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