Orban and The Bill

The bill contains a number of deeply worrying provisions. The first is that only official sources will now be allowed to report about the pandemic. This gives the government in Budapest an even tighter control on the media, as well as on the narrative of the coronavirus outbreak. What makes the bill even uglier is that those accused of spreading “false information” about the crisis could be punished with jail. Considering previous attacks on civil society carried out by Fidesz government, the opposition fears that these measures will allow the executive to silence legitimate critics to its management of the pandemic, and jail political opponents.

Another element of the bill that is even more horrifying is the government’s new ability to suspend parliamentary works and rule by decree without any timeframe. The opposition said they would have supported the bill if a timeframe was set. Orban decided to go alone, being able to count on a large majority in the parliament. If this measure is not overturned, it’s likely that for Hungary there will be no going back.

Once again, Orban showed that his vision of Hungary as an “illiberal democracy” (or, more accurately and honestly, a Russian-modeled dictatorship) is strong, ready to profit from any crisis to get even stronger. It’s unacceptable that such extraordinary measures, which are in and of themselves a dangerous tool in the hands of a wannabe dictator, have no time constraint. The generic reassurance that these will be abolished after the pandemic is over finds very little trust among those worried about Orban’s handling of the country. After all, if that was the intention, why not set a timeframe and then use extensions, like other countries in Europe are doing? Why not agree to a compromise with the opposition, to show national cohesion during a global crisis?

The answer is painfully obvious – this is a show of force against Orban’s Hungarian and European opponents. But it could be even worse: a testing of the Hungarian society, to evaluate its reaction to the establishment of a de facto dictatorship and a defanged parliament. Hungarians should be very worried about this and remember that, although history doesn’t necessarily repeat itself, giving a blank check to governments and eliminating forms of political dialogue such as parliamentarian debates and votes is a well-trodden path towards horrifying events.

Another Sickness In The EU

The lines of ideological battle are drawn, and they extend far beyond Hungary, and into the rest of Europe. Even with coronavirus absorbing so much of our attention, a cry for Orban to respect of democratic values has been met with the unwavering endorsement of other authoritarian and fifth columnist parties in Europe. The European Commission is keeping an eye on all new emergency laws introduced by Member States to fight against the COVID-19 outbreak, monitoring that they do not violate citizens’ fundamental rights, but it’s paying extra attention to Hungary’s case. Swift action will be required.

No dictatorship should be allowed to rise in the heart of the EU. No dictatorship should benefit from European funds while trampling on the EU’s founding principles. No dictatorship should enjoy membership of the EU’s ruling party, the EPP, even if it’s a suspended one. Every legitimate and appropriate resource must be used to prevent such an eventuality. The EPP should take a clear stance on Fidesz and its suspended membership. Civil society in Hungary must be supported and freedom of the media must be upheld. Finally, Article 7 – the so-called “nuclear option” – which has already been triggered against Hungary and stalled, should be pushed through to its natural conclusion. This can lead to the suspension of the voting right of a member country on EU decisions.

Unfortunately, the European Commission is not in a position to do much. The intergovernmental nature of the Union, alongside with unanimity requirements in certain votes, means that Hungary can rely on other Member States for support, while the EPP seems pathologically incapable of reaching a final decision regarding Fidesz. However, while Orban’s Hungary gets its fair share of concern for its legally sanctioned slides towards authoritarianism, it’s not the only country facing this danger. Poland stands close, and other authoritarian, fifth columnist parties in Europe are growing stronger or are already strong enough to claim large victories during elections. These menaces to the European project know no border, which is quite ironic itself. It follows, then, that the fight for democracy can’t be but a shared responsibility across the Continent.

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The Slovenian Electoral System

Voters will elect the ninety deputies of the Assembly through a mixed system: 88 of these are elected through party-list proportional representation across eight constituencies, each of them composed of eleven seats. The remaining two members of the Assembly are elected through a first past the post system by the Italian and Hungarian minorities respectively; these deputies hold an absolute veto in matters concerning their ethnic groups. Finally, there is an electoral threshold of 4% for parties wishing to get into Parliament.

Main Parties

Several parties will compete for seats, although nobody currently holds the numbers required to form a government without broad coalitions.

1 – The Slovenian Democrats

The Democrats rank among the oldest Slovenian parties, and spent the past four years in opposition. This party was originally a social democratic one, but has since shifted firmly to the rightt The SDS looks to Donald Trump as a model and enjoys the official endorsement of Viktor Orban, which has raised eyebrows in Slovenia and abroad. It runs on a platform that opposes immigration and offers a mix of economic deregulation and social conservatism. Under the slogan “Slovenia first” the Democrats promise lower taxes and higher pensions, with an emphasis on traditional family values. Their candidate, Janez Janša, has led the party for over twenty-five years.

2 – The List for Marjan Sarec

The List is a party founded and headed by a former comedian and journalist. The party is four years old and will be contesting general elections for the first time, bringing far-reaching proposals to the table. The catch-all party wants to introduce preferential voting, scrap the upper chamber and give more powers to the Prime Minister. The List supports universal basic income, wants to fight climate change and opposes privatising strategic firms – but is in favour of a balanced budget and the reduction of debt, as well as private pension schemes.
Their leader, Sarec, is a practicing catholic who supports abortion, the legalization of cannabis and tolerance for LGBT people, and believes true socialism can be found in the teachings of Jesus Christ.

3 – The Best of the Rest

A plethora of smaller parties vies for scraps behind the two most prominent contestants. Chief among these are the Social Democrats, with a bread and butter center left programme aimed at tackling social inequality. Their coalition partners in the previous government, the Modern Center Right, are even further behind: this social liberal, centrist party participated in elections for the very first time in 2014, winning a whopping 34% of votes and forming a government. They have experienced a near-total collapse of support.

Polls

Current polls see the Slovenian Democrats in the lead with 15%, followed by the List for Marjan Sarec at just under 8%. It is to be noted that polls have reported somewhat varying figures and that over 20% of the electorate still counts as undecided. In polls that do not include the “undecided” option, the Democrats are closer to 25% predicted support – which would still require the creation of a coalition to form a government.

Most Slovenian parties have expressed reservations on the possibility of a coalition with the Democrats, labeling them as radicals. The party’s ties to Orban and indirectly to Putin are a cause of nervousness and it’s likely that the Democrats will have to look to the far right for support. Sarec’s List is available to coalition deals with anyone who is not involved in corruption scandals.

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