Unquestionably, this sentence is yet more proof that the Russian State under Vladimir Putin’s presidency is nothing but a ruthless dictatorship which stomps on virtually everyone that dares oppose it. However, it doesn’t mean that Alexei Navalny would be a much better alternative for Russia in any regard. In fact, many of Navalny’s political stances should raise red flags for Russian and Western observers alike.

Navalny’s Political Ideology

On paper, an uninformed observer may point at the amorphous Russian Communist Party as the main opposition to the Russian regime. Indeed, the party holds the dubious honour of being the second-largest political party in Russia with its 43 out of 450 seats in the State Duma. Reality, however, shows a much different picture.

By virtue of being consistently suppressed by the government and being more appealing to the Russian youth than the Russian Communist Party, the title of main opposition party undoubtedly goes to the social-liberal Yabloko. Protesters have rallied around this party like a beacon of hope and it is not unusual to see the Yabloko’s flag during protests and anti-governmental rallies. It is not surprising, then, that it was the only non-system party which managed to secure multiple seats in Moscow’s 2019 local election, despite the standard electoral fraud by the Russian regime.

Navalny himself was, in the early days, involved with Yabloko. However, he was expelled in 2007 for his far-right views. That same year, he then went on to co-found a new political movement called The People, which allied itself with two other ethnic nationalist groups called Movement Against Illegal Immigration and Great Russia. All these groups were characterised not only by their zealous nationalism but also by a generalised unsatisfaction with Putin’s leadership, which was considered “too weak”.

But Navalny’s links to the far-right go beyond mere association. Since the first edition in 2006, he has been involved in the yearly Russian March, a gathering of far-right nationalists from all political groups. He has routinely been accused of using racial slurs and basing his relations with people on their ethnicity. Most concerningly, his foreign policy doesn’t mark any significant departure from the status quo.

In the past, Navalny has stated his support for Russian presence in Ukraine, notably stating that “Russia should strive for the integration of Belarus and Ukraine” and claiming that they are a part of Russia and form only one country together. While he criticised Russia’s policy in Ukraine – because it was led by Vladimir Putin’s government – he has been remarkably silent about his criticism on the annexation of Crimea in itself. When asked about possibly returning it to Ukraine if he was ever to lead Russia, he confirmed that his government would not start such a procedure.

When it comes to the Caucasus, his track record is even more appalling. He supported Russia in its war against Georgia in 2008, going as far as calling for all Georgians to be expelled from Russia. In a recording of a pro-gun rights video around the same time, he also compared people from Russia’s mostly Muslim North Caucasus to “cockroaches” and mimicked shooting one. His efforts were crowned by the ardent endorsement of the nationalist campaign “Stop Feeding the Caucasus”, in which he called for an end to the federal subsidies for the poor, ethnic minority-populated autonomous regions in the south of the country.

A Moderate Turn?

Despite never retracting many of his controversial statements, in recent years Navalny’s inflammatory rhetoric has mellowed out. His attention has turned primarily to another one of his special interests: the fight against corruption and authoritarianism in his country. His dabbling in journalism, through which he uncovered many high-profile investigations against State-owned companies, served to launch him well beyond his far-right niche and propelled him as a Russian opposition hero in Western media. The most recent assassination attempt has cemented this distorted legacy of a “champion of democracy” fighting for the rule of law in Russia.

This image couldn’t be farther from the truth. His attempts to seem more moderate now are simply a consequence of his desire to garner more sympathy from the West. He is not interested in being a “champion of democracy” as much as he is interested in preserving Russian integrity. If he has been more discreet about his – really important – ties with nationalist groups, it is probably only to enjoy the support that the West has been giving him.

There is a reason why Navalny isn’t really liked by significant parts of the Russian opposition. Though he makes better attempts to hide them, he has the same authoritarian tendencies as Putin. It would be absolutely foolish to think the Russian Constitution and democracy would be better off with him in charge. Nor would he be any more friendly towards the West than Putin is right now.

Navalny isn’t the best hope for Russia, but merely another side to the Russian autocracy with a “reformer” label that he knows how to use. Unlike the way in which he is pictured in Western media, he doesn’t represent the entirety of the Russian opposition in and of himself, but rather he is merely one opponent amongst others. He should not be getting all the spotlight, or in fact any at all.

If Not Navalny, Who Else?

For those looking in, the real question then becomes: if we don’t shine a spotlight on Navalny, the public face of Russian opposition to the regime, who else should we shine the spotlight on? The question is not as simple as it may seem.

It would be wrong to assume that everyone who voices support for him in Russia is backing him for all his positions. This is especially the case in recent years, as Navalny has indeed presented himself as a moderate. His work on exposing corruption remains fundamental to the democratic progress of Russia as a whole. At the same time, however, the people he has worked with, in particular the Russian ultranationalists, are not personalities that are keen to uphold the rule of law or ensure basic democratic freedoms.

For this reason, it is important not to conflate the struggle of Russian opposition about the rule of law and democracy merely with Navalny. The focus has to be less on him and more on individuals from civil society, opposition mayors or people in elected positions, and so on. Through Western media, we should promote more groups like Yabloko and the ultra pro-western Republican Party of Russia, which have been doing important work in this respect, and the legacy of people like Boris Nemtsov, former Deputy Premier assassinated in 2015, who is still today an important symbol of pro-democracy protesters in Russia.

The hopes of a lot of people are pinned on a regime change that will finally bring an end to Putin’s reign. It may seem easy to support Navalny in this respect, if only because he clearly and outspokenly opposes Putin himself. However, supporting someone with his own, different brand of autocracy could prove to be a critical short-term mistake, one dangerous to the West as much as it is to the democratic aspirations of the Russian people. 

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The results are give Vladimir Putin an unsurprisingly easy victory, with opinion polls giving him around 70% of thepreferences – ten times more than his nearest challenger. However, this resounding victory for a fourth term as President could be dampened by low turnout due to voter fatigue: with the result so obvious from the start, they is little incentive for Russians to turn up to the polling stations. To try and inflate the turnout, Putin’s officials have allegedly been selling discounted goods at polling stations, and instructing state to photograph themselves at the polling booth and report back to their bosses.

Electoral System

Russian Presidential elections take place every six years in a two-round electoral system. During the first round, an absolute majority is required to win. If no candidate gets 50%+1 of the votes, a second round is held exactly three weeks later between the two candidates with the most votes. To this day, in the six elections which have taken place since 1991, a second round was required only once, and it is unlikely that 2018 will be any different.

According to the Constitution, any Russian citizen who is more than 35, has permanently resided in Russia for the 10 years leading up to the election, and has committed no serious crime can run for Presidency. However, individuals running as independents or with the backing of a political party which is not represented in the State Duma, the lower house of the Parliament, face an additional obstacle. Those with the backing of a political party have to collect 100.000 signatures in support of their candidacy, while for independents that number goes up to 300.000. Moreover, there is a ban on more than two consecutive terms in office, although Presidents are free to run again for a further third and fourth time after sitting out once full electoral term.

Main Candidates and Positions

There are 7 contenders trying to take the title from Putin, although none of them have the support needed to even be a threat to the incumbent President. Here is an overview of who these eight candidates are and what they stand for:

• Vladimir Putin, already thrice President of the Russian Federation, is the clear frontrunner in the race, with the backing of a number of parties throughout the political spectrum. Although he has not presented an electoral programme, and has refused to partake in TV debates with the other candidates, he is easily going to win on a well-known platform and political approach.
• Pavel Grudinin, an engineer and farmer backed by the Russian Communist Party. Since 1995, he runs Lenin State Farm, the country’s biggest strawberry producer, which grows about 60 tonnes daily and boasted 41 million euro in revenues for 2014-2015. His programme is focused on restoring the national economic sovereignty by withdrawing from the WTO, revitalising the external provinces of Russia, introducing progressive taxation, and improving the quality of public administration by making the President’s nominations for official state positions more accountable. Moreover, he supports free healthcare and education, a minimum salary of 25.000 rubles (350 euro), and the provision of affordable healthcare for everyone.

  

• Ksenia Sobchak, a TV anchor and journalist who is backed by Civil Initiative. She is a supporter of free-market capitalism and privatisation. Her manifesto has the rights of women and female representation as one of the key issues, with the salary gap, the absence of women in the higher positions, and the official ban from certain heavy professions as the main points of focus. She has also focused a lot on Russia’s annexation of Crimea, and believes that while the return of that territory without conditions would be impossible, Crimea is rightfully Ukrainian land. To solve this issues, she has suggested a new referendum under more impartial conditions.
• Maxim Suraykin, Chairman of the Central Committee of the Communists of Russia, has presented two different programs: one for his first hundred days of presidency, and one for the subsequent transition period from a capitalist into a communist regime. His aim is the restoration of the USSR, and the mobilisation of the working class in order to overturn the capitalist system.
• Boris Titov, backed by the Party of Growth, is running as President mostly to showcase his party’s economic program, known as Growth Strategy. This would involve diversifying Russian economy and creating high-quality jobs.

  

• Grigory Yavlinsky, an economist running as the candidate for the liberal party Yabloko, is attempting to become President for the third time. is policies mainly focus on improving the economic situation through governance reforms and stopping involvement in conflicts. He has also promised to give out several acres of free land to 15 million families so they can build home there and develop it, and to turn the Russian Armed Forces into a fully professional military by abolishing conscription.
• Vladimir Zhirinovsky, candidate for the Liberal Democratic Party, has promised to amend the Russian Constitution and to radically change the policies of the country. In particular, he would abolish the federal structure of Russia and to return to the Governorates, rename the post of “President of Russia” to the “Supreme Ruler of Russia” and to restore Russia’s borders to the borders of the USSR in 1985.

Polls

According to the polls, the validity of which may be contested as partial, Putin enjoys almost 70% of the vote preferences. Grudinin and Zhirinovsky are coming in next, with only 6% each. However, many voters are undecided, and many more will not go vote, dampening Putin’s resounding victory with vote fatigue.

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