Since the birth of the Coal and Steel Community in 1957, the European project has grown from a meagre 6 founders to its current 28 members through six distinct enlargement waves. Now, the European Union seems to be ready for a seventh wave – this time incorporating the Western Balkans within the bloc. But how does a country go about joining the EU, exactly? It is necessary to meet determinate criteria before even being considered as a potential candidate member. For example, countries must be ‘European‘, something which has proven of difficult interpretation in the past. When Morocco applied, the EU turned it down on the basis that it was not a European country, but only a few years later Cyprus’ application was accepted – even though the island is technically in Asia. Nowadays, it is down to a purely political decision on a holistic basis.

European countries which wish to apply for membership also have to show that they fulfill the so-called Copenhagen criteria. This requires potential candidate countries to demonstrate respect of democracy and fundamental freedoms, the existence of a functioning market economy, and the intent to accept the obligations formed by EU membership. It is only once the Copenhagen criteria are fulfilled that the accession negotiations can finally begin. These negotiations involve the complicated process of adapting the candidate country’s legislation to the EU’s acquis communautaire, the corpus of legislation of the Union.

There are currently five countries which have the official status of candidate countries: Albania, Montenegro, Northern Macedonia (FYROM), Serbia, and Turkey. The European Commission moreover recognises two additional potential candidate countries, which are not ready to start negotiating yet but will probably be in the near future: Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina. Each of these countries has a unique relationship with the EU, and their negotiating processes has been very different due to the different internal mechanisms. This series will attempt to track the specificities of each of them and what those means for the future of their enlargement negotiations. After looking at Albania, this installment will focus on the Republic of Montenegro.

Geography and Culture of Montenegro

Located in south-eastern Europe, Montenegro spans across 13,812 sq. km. With a population of 620,145 citizens, it is one of the least populated countries in Europe. Similarly to the situation in many other ex-Yugoslav Republics, its recent history has helped it configure as a multi-ethnic state whose population includes Montenegrins, Serbs, Bosniaks, Croats and Albanians. Conforming to how the population expresses its identity and ethnic affiliation, the number of “Montenegrins” and “Serbs” can be different according to the census. However, estimates put the ethnically Serbian population of Montenegro at approximately 28% of the total population, making it the second largest ethnicity in the country. Albanian and Bosniaks communities are located above all along the borders with Albania and Bosnia and Herzegovina. In addition to Montenegrin, which is the official language, Serbian, Bosnian, Croatian and Albanian are all recognised in official use.

Society and Religion

The majority of Montenegrins follows Serbian Orthodox Christianity and they are members of the Serbian Orthodox Church. Over the centuries, Montenegro has created its own form of harmony between the Christian and Muslim population in the country. During the Balkan Wars, Montenegro remained stable and no conflicts between the Orthodox and the Muslim communities (above all Bosniaks and Albanians) took place. Muslim population accounts now for the 19% of the population. In 2012, a protocol was introduced that recognised Islam as an official religion, permitted to the Muslim women to wear headscarves in public institutions. and ensured halal foods to be served in all social facilities.

Politics in Montenegro

Ever since the introduction of a multi-party system in the 1990s in the region, Montenegro has been ruled continuously by the Democratic Party of Socialists of Montenegro, which – unlike what the name would suggest – is not a left-wing party. While it has historical ties with communism and communist ideals, it has since evolved in a centre to centre-right catch-all party following a populist rhetoric. It has been the driving force to driving the country into NATO and to pushing forward EU accession negotiations.

It is important to recognise, in analysing EU-Montenegro relations, just how young of an independent country it is and how immature its institutions still are. On the 21st May 2006, 55.5% of the eligible voters voted in favor of independence from Serbia, thus dismantling the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro which had existed until then and was the last vestige of Yugoslavia. The northern districts, those populated mainly by ethnic Serbs, voted mainly for the unionist propose, while the Albanian-majority and the southern area voted for the independence. Following the results of the referendum, the government of Serbia declared itself the legal successor of the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro. Both Serbia and the major international actors, amongst which the European Union, the United States, the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China, respected the referendum results.

Today, while it is one of the Western Balkan countries with the best rule of law and democratic status, the political situation of the country remains one of tensions and insecurity. Following the 2016 national elections – which resulted in a continuation of the Democratic Party of Socialists’ rule – both international observers and opposition parties criticised the climate of fear and violence which had reigned during election day. The lack of free and democratic elections led many of the non-government parties to organise a boycott of the parliamentary sessions, refusing to participate to any activity attended also the ruling party. In December 2017, two of the seven opposition parties decided to end the boycott and return to Parliament, followed by another three after the May 2018 local elections. Today, the Democratic Montenegro (DCG) and United Reform Action (URA) still remain in a boycott with the same demands to improve the electoral laws and democracy in the country.

Economic context

The Montenegrin economy has been making huge progress in the last few years. Montenegro has the most stable economy in the Western Balkans. In fact, even after the financial crisis of 2008, the economy of Montenegro suffered less than other Western Balkan countries remaining actually stable in all the following years, as it could be noticed by the GDP trend along the years. Poverty is in progressive decline from its peak of 19.6% in 2012 to the 12.8% in 2016. In 2017, it amounts to 11.5%. Also, the general government deficit fell from 8% in 2015 to 4% in 2016. It is expected to expand to 6% in 2018 and them to decline again to 4% in 2019.

The economy is forecast to grow by an average of 2.8% in 2017-2019 due to a huge plan of public investments and to personal consumption. The biggest risk is given by the external imbalances which are getting wider, reaching 21% of the GDP. This risks making the country’s economy more vulnerable to external shocks.

State of talks and accession chapters

Montenegro has demonstrated an unparalleled enthusiasm for joining the EU, both in terms of public and governmental support. Technically, its negotiations started in 2005, while the country was still federated with Serbia. At the time, separate technical negotiations were conducted regarding issues of sub-state organizational competency. The referendum and subsequent independence put a halt to that particular avenue of accession, but Montenegro soon resumed its bid alone. A mandate for direct negotiations with Montenegro was established in July 2006, just a few days after the results of the referendum. Direct negotiations were initiated on 26 September 2006 and concluded officially in 2007, with the signing of a Stabilisation and Association Agreement.

Currently, it is the candidate country most presumed to be the next Member State. The latest reports show much improvement in meeting the acquis requirements. As of today, there are currently two chapters waiting to be opened, twenty-eight chapters open, and five chapters that have been provisionally closed, including two chapters in which there is nothing to adopt. Only two areas remain critical and in need of severe progress, those of Fisheries and Financial and Budgetary Provisions.

The Road Ahead

There aren’t many any crucial issue for Montenegro to join EU. All the European countries recognise Montenegro as a sovereign state, including Serbia, and in 2017 the country has finally obtained the full membership in NATO. Moreover, Montenegro borders with Croatia to the Western side giving continuity to the territorial integrity of EU. Its progress in the acquis chapters has continued unbidden, and it doesn’t seem likely that it will slow down any time soon.

What remains to be negotiated upon is the future on the euro currency in the country. In 2002, Montenegro unilaterally adopted the euro as official currency, an introduction which the EU criticised but did not move to stop legally. Before that, as a constituent republic of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia – and later of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia – the Yugoslav dinar was the official currency in the country. In 1999, the government unilaterally introduced the Deutsche Mark as a co-official currency with the dinar, and in 2001 it became the only legal tender in the country, only for a short while before being phased out in favour of the euro.

The European Commission and the European Central Bank have repeatedly voiced their discontent over this unilateral use of the euro, as this is incompatible with the Treaties of the EU. Moreover, the EU insists on strict adherence to convergence criteria (such as spending at least 2 years in the ERMII system) which are not negotiable before euro adoption. This has proven to be a sticking issue for Montenegro’s bid to join the EU. Diplomats have suggested that it’s unlikely Montenegro will be forced to withdraw the euro from circulation in their country just to join it again after joining the EU, however the exact provisions in relation to this matter will have to be negotiated expressly in the final agreement.

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It previous nine contests, the country wasn’t really lucky, the best result is a thirteenth place in 2005 with Knez and the song Adio.

This year the country will be represented by Vanja Radovanović a Montenegrin singer and songwriter.

Vanja rose to fame in 2004 when he competed at the Budva Music Festival where he won the award for the Best Debut with the song Dripac.

Over the last decade Vanja has released numerous new singles, composed songs for other artists, performed at countless concerts, and also became the lead singer of the band called VIII2.

He wrote and composed Inje, Montenegro’s song for the 2018 Eurovision Song Contest.

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The Montenegrin Electoral System

The country’s constitution requires that all candidates collect at least 7.993 signatures from the registered Montenegrin electorate, amounting to a total of 1.5%. The candidates may be nominated by either a party or by a citizen group.  The President is then elected using a two-round system. For a candidate to win during the first round, they must receive an absolute majority of the votes – that is 50% +1 of all cast ballots. Failing this, a second round is held two weeks later between the two candidates with the highest amount of votes.

Main Candidates

There are seven official candidates running for the elections, even though the two frontrunners alone hold over 80% of the preferences.

1 – Milo Đukanović 

The first one is Đukanović, former president and six-times Prime Minister. He is backed by the Democratic Party of Socialists, the ruling government party since the 1990s. Both the party and the candidate strongly support EU membership for Montenegro’s future. During his time as Prime Minister,  Đukanović has been fundamental in gaining NATO membership for his country.

2 – Mladen Bojanić

The second candidate is Bojanić, former member of the Parliament.  He is running as an independent, but supported by a number of parties ranging from centre-left to centre-right. He is also the founder of Resistance to Hopelessness, an anti-establishment and anti-NATO political movement, although he abandoned it soon after its creation.

3 – Draginja Vuksanović

Vuksanović is a Professor of Law at the University of Montenegro and MP for the Social Democratic Party. Her nomination was also backed by the liberal conservative DEMOS party. She is the first female Montenegrin presidential candidate in the history of the country.

4 – Marko Milačić

He is a journalist and the founder of the extra-parliamentary party True Montenegro. He initially joined Bojanić’s Resistance to Hopelessness, and soon after became its de facto leader after Bojanić left. Out of this movement, Milačić then developed his political party in January 2018. 

True Montenegro mainly aims to overthrow the ruling Democratic Party of Socialists. This is because it has been in power ever since Montenegro introduced a multi-party system. This right-wing party has as its main objective to remove Montenegro from NATO. Moreover, it seeks to align the country with Russia and proclaim military neutrality.

5 – Hazbija Kalač

Kalač is the president of the extra-parliamentary party Justice and Reconciliation. This party stands for social conservatorism and aims to protect the interests of Bosniak minorities in Montenegro.

6 – Dobrilo Dedeić 

He is the president of the extra-parliamentary party Serb List. This Serbian nationalist party aims to represent the Serb minority in the country. It believes that Montenegro should reunite with Serbia as two brotherly states, and rejects the Montenegrin fight for EU integration. 

7 – Vasilije Miličković

Miličković is a businessman running as an independent in this election, although he is supported by the Party of United Pensioners and the Disabled.

Polls

According to opinion polls, Đukanović has around 51% of the preferences, while Bojanić has 35%. As for the precedent 2013 election, which ended with one candidate winning 51% over the second candidate’s 49%, this is also set to be a close race. However, unlike during the last elections, a second round may not even be needed. 

None of the remaining five candidates stands a chance of getting to the second round of the elections. Vuksanović is the third most popular candidate, and has only 8% of the preferences. Finally, all the other candidates combined only reach 6% in opinion polls.

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